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Intro, Legal and Cap Struct - 12 Sep 23

Business and Industry Overview - 12 Sep 23

Company, Model and Valuation - 12 Sep 23

Investment Discussion - 12 Sep 23

Featured
Tele Columbus - Inmate Economics - Model Update
Wolfgang Felix
Tele Columbus - Inmate Economics - Model Update
Wolfgang Felix

Please find our updated analysis of Tele Columbus here.

Are investors calculating off the right base? If you calculate your capex required to upgrade normal hotel rooms so that more travellers choose your hotel over others, you'd come up with a small number. A few extra amenities will do. However, it turns out the same is not true for convincing inmates. Once you allow inmates to choose among hotels, they will not choose based on their cell, but compared to other hotels available, and converting the prison into a competitive hotel is a larger relative capex outlay than adding a minibar and wifi. 
Sounds trivial, but the generalised economics we hear thrown about that reason on ratios and averages just don't seem to apply to a hostage situation where there is more ground to be made up underneath the sheer numbers. Relative to TC's current shape, we might just need a lot more cash than shorthand economics would usually prescribe.

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Wolfgang Felix
Tele Columbus - comment
Wolfgang Felix
Tele Columbus - comment
Wolfgang Felix

Tele Columbus is reporting "constructive dialogues between MSI MorganStanley and [its] lenders. The discussions are ongoing, and

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Wolfgang Felix
Tele Columbus - Reality - Model Update
Aengus McMahon
Tele Columbus - Reality - Model Update
Aengus McMahon

Please find our updated analysis here.

Tele Columbus needs to restructure its balance sheet. The amount of cash needed to fulfil its capex plan is modest, but the company will never grow into its

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Aengus McMahon
Tele Columbus - comment
Aengus McMahon
Tele Columbus - comment
Aengus McMahon

The 2025 FY results are in line with our forecasts, which we believe were lower than market expectations. As a result, the bonds will be a

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Aengus McMahon
Aengus McMahon
Tele Columbus - comment
Aengus McMahon

0% of Tele Columbus’ SSN holders signing up to the creditor co-op agreement is a positive for the bonds. Tele Columbus is close enough to the

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Aengus McMahon
Aengus McMahon
Tele Columbus - comment
Aengus McMahon

The SSNs will be marked lower after news from Debt Wire that a majority of creditors in the Bank debt and the SSNs have signed a

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Aengus McMahon
Aengus McMahon
Tele Columbus - comment
Aengus McMahon

The new CEO has a big job ahead of him. The take-up of new fibre services has been slower than hoped, and Tele Columbus has

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Aengus McMahon
Wolfgang Felix
Tele Columbus - comment
Wolfgang Felix

Markus Oswald is leaving his job as CEO of Tele Columbus after only three years, without a successor in place. He has overseen the

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Wolfgang Felix
Tele Columbus - comment
Aengus McMahon
Tele Columbus - comment
Aengus McMahon

Revenue was in line with our model, and whilst reported EBITDA was ahead, driven by the absence of one-offs. The take-up of new, faster

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Aengus McMahon
Tele Columbus – Options 
Aengus McMahon
Tele Columbus – Options 
Aengus McMahon

Please see our updated analysis here.

As we feared, Tele Columbus (TC) is struggling to get traction in upgrading its network and signing up customers. We forecast a funding gap

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Aengus McMahon
Aengus McMahon
Tele Columbus - comment
Aengus McMahon

Partnering with a wholesale fibre provider will help manage the costs of the FTTH rollout in Berlin, so this is a small credit positive.

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Aengus McMahon
Tele Columbus - comment
Aengus McMahon
Tele Columbus - comment
Aengus McMahon

The numbers point to some progress in adding customers, with 2025 guidance pointing to additional, if slow, progress. The company forecasts flat revenue in

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Aengus McMahon
Tele Columbus - comment
Aengus McMahon
Tele Columbus - comment
Aengus McMahon

TC will need to start adding premium TV and Fibre customers quickly over the next few quarters to stay on track, but so far the revenue fall is

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Aengus McMahon
Aengus McMahon
Tele Columbus - comment
Aengus McMahon

The EU court rejecting a challenge to the Vodafone acquisition of Cable assets 6 years ago was always the likely outcome. DT’s re-emergence as

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Aengus McMahon
Aengus McMahon
Tele Columbus - comment
Aengus McMahon

The Q3 6.2% loss of TV customers from MDUs at Vodafone (Germany) can be applied to TC. The drop is sharp, but the downward slope from

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Aengus McMahon
Tele Columbus - comment
Aengus McMahon
Tele Columbus - comment
Aengus McMahon

Q2 24 revenue aligned with our forecasts with OCF €20m below our forecast of €155m. TV RGU losses and Broadband adds were in

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Aengus McMahon
Aengus McMahon
Tele Columbus - comment
Aengus McMahon

From today, the bundling of TV fees into rent has been abolished. The suppliers have been aware since 2021, but from now we will see how ready the

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Aengus McMahon
Aengus McMahon
Tele Columbus - comment
Aengus McMahon

United Internet (UI) potentially suing Morgan Stanley (MS) over its valuation of Tele Columbus (TC) should not distract management as they will still get the

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Aengus McMahon
Tele Columbus – If you build it, they will come.
Aengus McMahon
Tele Columbus – If you build it, they will come.
Aengus McMahon

Please find our slightly updated analysis here.

Tele Columbus (TC) has completed its restructuring and can now concentrate on building its fibre network and protecting its CATV business. There is a

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Aengus McMahon
Tele Columbus - comment
Aengus McMahon
Tele Columbus - comment
Aengus McMahon

24Q1 revenue and adjusted EBITDA were in line with our modelling. The cap markets day was last week, and management gave a steer for today’s figures, so there were

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Aengus McMahon