sarria live model
sarria analysis
corporate filings

- Below is the Eutelsat Live Discussion, edited into smaller videos for your convenience - for speed listening, go to the settings wheel on the bottom right of the video and choose playback speed - after one minute video becomes high-resolution -

 

Intro Capital and Legal Structure - 5 Mar 25

Current Trading - 5 Mar 25

Industry - 5 Mar 25

CF + Valuations ESA and OneWeb - 5 Mar 25

Leverage + Game Theory - 5 Mar 25

Investment Discussion - 5 Mar 2025

 
SARRIA News -INTU
Eutelsat - Downhill from here - Model Update
Wolfgang Felix
Eutelsat - Downhill from here - Model Update
Wolfgang Felix

Please find our updated analysis on Eutelsat here.

The deterioration in the GEO business is outweighed by the fresh equity, holding EV practically constant in our calculation. However, as

Wolfgang Felix
Wolfgang Felix
Eutelsat - comment
Wolfgang Felix

Round 1 of the capital increase is underway for €828m of fresh equity. Thi sis the reserved leg to be subscribed by the French state, also

Wolfgang Felix
Wolfgang Felix
SES/Eutelsat - comment
Wolfgang Felix

Yes, IRIS2 is committed to, but this is not the shift of funds that will boost the slower-than-expected government satellite

Wolfgang Felix
Wolfgang Felix
Eutelsat - comment
Wolfgang Felix

Following it’s capital increase, Eutelsat has found a new CFO in Sebastien Rouge, a safe pair of Parisian establishment hands with

Wolfgang Felix
Eutelsat - comment
Wolfgang Felix
Eutelsat - comment
Wolfgang Felix

We are due to update our Eutelsat and SES models, but yesterday’s Eutelsat Q126 results were largely on target. Within that, however, we are seeing

Wolfgang Felix
Eutelsat - comment
Wolfgang Felix
Eutelsat - comment
Wolfgang Felix

Overall, the group is tracking our model very closely, except that reported divisional revenues at S.A. level include LEO revenue, something we have

Wolfgang Felix
Wolfgang Felix
Eutelsat - comment
Wolfgang Felix

According to Les Echos, London is ready to co-invest into Europe’s only LEO operator. The investment would not rival France’s 30% stake, but

Wolfgang Felix
Wolfgang Felix
Eutelsat - comment
Wolfgang Felix

The capital increase is underway. Yesterday night, the BPI informed that it had ceded its 13.6% share to APE, the corporate holding

Wolfgang Felix
Wolfgang Felix
Eutelsat - comment
Wolfgang Felix

Following its announcement of a large framework agreement with the French armed forces, Eutelst went further yesterday afternoon in also

Wolfgang Felix
Wolfgang Felix
Eutelsat - comment
Wolfgang Felix

The company has disclosed a 10-year framework agreement with the French DGA (Defence Procurement Agency) in the context of the

Wolfgang Felix
Wolfgang Felix
Eutelsat - comment
Wolfgang Felix

Shareholders are repositioning themselves as France is about to double their position in the company, and Sunil Mittal considers following

Wolfgang Felix
Wolfgang Felix
Eutelsat - comment
Wolfgang Felix

€1.5bn fresh Equity sounds about right and the State of France has been the favourite all along. This cash will not be used to

Wolfgang Felix
Eutelsat - comment
Wolfgang Felix
Eutelsat - comment
Wolfgang Felix

So far, as regards defence contracts, Eutelsat is losing faster in the US than it is gaining in Europe. Management on the call did not go into

Wolfgang Felix
Wolfgang Felix
Eutelsat - comment
Wolfgang Felix

Selling at 98 felt great, but the bonds are now at 105. Apparently, the change in CEO to Jean-François Fallacher was a condition for the

Wolfgang Felix
Wolfgang Felix
Eutelsat - comment
Wolfgang Felix

The company has a new CEO in Jean-François Fallacher, who is coming from Orange, France. He has had

Wolfgang Felix
Eutelsat - Live Discussion videos
Wolfgang Felix
Eutelsat - Live Discussion videos
Wolfgang Felix

Eutelsat Live Discussion videos are available on the website, here.

Wolfgang Felix
Eutelsat - Better Lucky than good - Positioning
Wolfgang Felix
Eutelsat - Better Lucky than good - Positioning
Wolfgang Felix

Please find our updated (prices) analysis here.

So we got lucky. We were mentioning the defence contract in our deliberations, but it certainly wasn’t the driver for our decision to take the short off and

Wolfgang Felix
Wolfgang Felix
Eutelsat - comment
Wolfgang Felix

Better lucky than good… This morning Eutelsat shares are up at €3.66, last seen in November in the mother of all short squeezes, while the 29s are up in the

Wolfgang Felix
Eutelsat Idea Pitch Video Now Available
Wolfgang Felix
Eutelsat Idea Pitch Video Now Available
Wolfgang Felix

Eutelsat Pitch video is now live. You can find it on the Sarria website landing page and on the dedicated Eutelsat page.

Wolfgang Felix
Eutelsat - The Bond Constellation - Positioning
Wolfgang Felix
Eutelsat - The Bond Constellation - Positioning
Wolfgang Felix

Please find our significantly updated analysis of Eutelsat here.

Every now and then a company sees its cash-cow business decline and has to bet on the new star. Lucky for satellite operators, those new stars are not all that

Wolfgang Felix
Eutelsat - comment
Wolfgang Felix
Eutelsat - comment
Wolfgang Felix

In short, the call was predictably negative. Intelsat have clearly shifted their strategic focus away from the legacy business the bonds are secured on, while the delays in

Wolfgang Felix
Eutelsat - The Sky Is Falling Slowly - Positioning
Saahil Dey
Eutelsat - The Sky Is Falling Slowly - Positioning
Saahil Dey

Please find our initiation here.  

"Chasing too many rabbits at the same time": Eutelsat is facing the perfect storm of declines in half of its revenues, a large capex bill for the medium term to

Saahil Dey