LONG Idea
- Below is the Eutelsat Live Discussion, edited into smaller videos for your convenience - for speed listening, go to the settings wheel on the bottom right of the video and choose playback speed - after one minute video becomes high-resolution -
Intro Capital and Legal Structure - 5 Mar 25
Current Trading - 5 Mar 25
Industry - 5 Mar 25
CF + Valuations ESA and OneWeb - 5 Mar 25
Leverage + Game Theory - 5 Mar 25
Investment Discussion - 5 Mar 2025
As some of you know, we are working on the City’s most powerful proprietary AI system to extend our work and make our own content more readily accessible. Importantly, “Rafael" learns and helps us integrate data, colour and news into our house view, allowing us to interpret events consistently and maintain a coherent investment approach. Rafael runs entirely inside our own environment on Sarria’s own research, and nothing leaves the house. Let us know your thoughts on the unedited example below:
Steady for the bonds. RG Group revenues were slightly down on our forecast as Video is falling even faster than expected; government pick-up
Good news for satellite operators. According to a Reuters article now approved by the FCC, the latter has set a $6.3bn incentive pool to clear
Bigger investment promises less FCF for the bonds, and in our opinion, should put some pressure on this morning. 528 of the incremental
We are reading news articles (possibly AI-generated) portraying the collapsed sale of the ground infrastructure to
Bonds should not move much this morning. We had already been asking about the timing of the French defence ramp-up on the last call. The early
Compared to SES yesterday morning, Eutelsat’s performance is brighter. It was a good, brief call, and bonds should be mildly friendly today as
Eutelsat is following up its recent €1bn BPI guaranteed financing with the bond issuance (a condition precedent). The €1.5bn issue will
It’s all faster than expected. Both the growth at One Web and the drop in Video are running ahead of our model to produce EBITDA, only slightly
Following its recent unfunded order of 340 LEO satellites from Airbus, Eutelsat Communications SA, the topco, has received an
We have written before that we’ve never been fans of the EQT deal, although for a while it seemed that Eutelsat had no other option. Now that it has
The company announces the success of its rights issue, the second leg of its capital raising program. Over the course of Q4, therefore, Eutelsat will
Please find our updated analysis on Eutelsat here.
The deterioration in the GEO business is outweighed by the fresh equity, holding EV practically constant in our calculation. However, as
Round 1 of the capital increase is underway for €828m of fresh equity. Thi sis the reserved leg to be subscribed by the French state, also
Yes, IRIS2 is committed to, but this is not the shift of funds that will boost the slower-than-expected government satellite
Following it’s capital increase, Eutelsat has found a new CFO in Sebastien Rouge, a safe pair of Parisian establishment hands with
We are due to update our Eutelsat and SES models, but yesterday’s Eutelsat Q126 results were largely on target. Within that, however, we are seeing
Overall, the group is tracking our model very closely, except that reported divisional revenues at S.A. level include LEO revenue, something we have
According to Les Echos, London is ready to co-invest into Europe’s only LEO operator. The investment would not rival France’s 30% stake, but
The capital increase is underway. Yesterday night, the BPI informed that it had ceded its 13.6% share to APE, the corporate holding
Following its announcement of a large framework agreement with the French armed forces, Eutelst went further yesterday afternoon in also
The company has disclosed a 10-year framework agreement with the French DGA (Defence Procurement Agency) in the context of the
Shareholders are repositioning themselves as France is about to double their position in the company, and Sunil Mittal considers following
€1.5bn fresh Equity sounds about right and the State of France has been the favourite all along. This cash will not be used to
So far, as regards defence contracts, Eutelsat is losing faster in the US than it is gaining in Europe. Management on the call did not go into
Selling at 98 felt great, but the bonds are now at 105. Apparently, the change in CEO to Jean-François Fallacher was a condition for the
The company has a new CEO in Jean-François Fallacher, who is coming from Orange, France. He has had
Eutelsat Live Discussion videos are available on the website, here.
Please find our updated (prices) analysis here.
So we got lucky. We were mentioning the defence contract in our deliberations, but it certainly wasn’t the driver for our decision to take the short off and
Better lucky than good… This morning Eutelsat shares are up at €3.66, last seen in November in the mother of all short squeezes, while the 29s are up in the