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Capital and Legal Structure 15/07/22

Retail 15/07/22

CashFlows and Valuation 15/07/22

Ocado Logistics and Technology 15/07/22

Investment Discussion 15/07/22
The FYE 25 headline results were broadly in line with our expectations (Revenue £688m vs £669m forecast), with both Technology and
The press reports of 1,000 job losses were inevitable given the Kroger and Sobeys news. Our view is that the value of the existing
Underperforming CFCs are being shut as suppliers tweak their delivery models. We are surprised at the low level of compensation being
Today’s announcement doesn’t change our thesis on Ocado, and is a small positive as it widens the potential customer base. The existing
Kroger has decided not to proceed with the Charlotte CFC, so the payment to Ocado has risen by $100m to $350m. Kroger will continue to
The FT article on the Ocado/Kroger CFC closures fleshes out a few interesting points. We still expect CFCs to be the major part of the
The CFC model is not dead, but is evolving. ODO Systems is a competitor to Ocado, and we agree with the sentiment that
Kroger’s closure of three sites was at the worst end of our expectations. The closure fees from Kroger for the CFC closures imply a valuation of
For now, M&S is not discussing a purchase, but we still expect M&S to eventually buy Ocado out of their UK joint venture. Taking
Calling the remaining £55m of the 3.875% 2026 SUNs is no surprise and will have only a
Appointing an executive to push Ocado into non-grocery logistics makes sense as the company courts pharma
A bearish note on Ocado is pressurising the equity. Our worst-case scenario is that the Kroger rollout is halted; this equity note presumes two
Please see our updated analysis here.
Ocado has been rocked by the decision by Kroger to review its online strategy. We think the impact on the SUNs is relatively small, as we
Kroger’s review of its e-commerce strategy is driven by the need for e-commerce profitability as opposed to disenchantment with Ocado; E-commerce sales grew
Aldi grew sales 6.3% (vs inflation of 5.2%) and continues to close the gap on Morrisons. Given that grocery inflation is at the same
