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Capital and Legal Structure 15/07/22

Retail 15/07/22

CashFlows and Valuation 15/07/22

Ocado Logistics and Technology 15/07/22

Investment Discussion 15/07/22
Kroger has decided not to proceed with the Charlotte CFC, so the payment to Ocado has risen by $100m to $350m. Kroger will continue to
The FT article on the Ocado/Kroger CFC closures fleshes out a few interesting points. We still expect CFCs to be the major part of the
The CFC model is not dead, but is evolving. ODO Systems is a competitor to Ocado, and we agree with the sentiment that
Kroger’s closure of three sites was at the worst end of our expectations. The closure fees from Kroger for the CFC closures imply a valuation of
For now, M&S is not discussing a purchase, but we still expect M&S to eventually buy Ocado out of their UK joint venture. Taking
Calling the remaining £55m of the 3.875% 2026 SUNs is no surprise and will have only a
Appointing an executive to push Ocado into non-grocery logistics makes sense as the company courts pharma
A bearish note on Ocado is pressurising the equity. Our worst-case scenario is that the Kroger rollout is halted; this equity note presumes two
Please see our updated analysis here.
Ocado has been rocked by the decision by Kroger to review its online strategy. We think the impact on the SUNs is relatively small, as we
Kroger’s review of its e-commerce strategy is driven by the need for e-commerce profitability as opposed to disenchantment with Ocado; E-commerce sales grew
Aldi grew sales 6.3% (vs inflation of 5.2%) and continues to close the gap on Morrisons. Given that grocery inflation is at the same
Technology Revenues of £277m were ahead of our expectations, and this is reflected in EBITDA of £73m vs our forecast of £51m (excluding Ocado Retail). Capex of
Ocado drawing the LC line cannot have surprised the Bank of Nova Scotia, given the cost of external bond debt. High-yield issuance
A new competitor for Ocado, with a former Ocado executive as CEO. Veloq launched in 2014 and claims to deliver 1.3m orders a
Ocado aims to avoid costly equity issuance for now and prefers high-coupon, non-dilutive debt. Today’s transaction will increase the
