Please find our updated analysis on Graanul here, following its second non-deal roadshow in six months.

Apollo and the management team believe the current market offers an opportunity to refinance the bonds and have launched a second non-deal roadshow this week to test investor appetite. The Company attempted a refinancing earlier this year and now pursues a transaction following some increased visibility on volumes beyond FY26. We remain sceptical about Graanul’s medium-term earnings potential, which we discuss in more detail below.

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Graanul’s bonds rose by around five points following the Q1 call last night, as investors took comfort from announcements of new contracts

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Graanul’s Q1 financial results were broadly in line with expectations, although production numbers were stronger than

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The FT reports that the Japanese government is reducing subsidies for the biomass sector, framing the development negatively as a cut to

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Please find our updated analysis on Graanul here. 

Graanul reported its Q3 results recently, but given that the majority of FY25 and FY26 production is already contracted, the figures were

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Graanul reported its Q3 results, which were broadly in line with expectations. Demand for wood pellets has strengthened since the

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Drax announced this morning that it has entered into a contract with the UK Government to continue operating its biomass

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Graanul released its Q2 results this morning, with a conference call scheduled for tomorrow at 1 pm. The initial reaction to the results is that

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Graanul provided an update on the consent solicitation process, as over 75% of existing noteholders have acceded to the Amend and Extend agreement. The early

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The Drax results yesterday, and management’s subsequent comments, reaffirm our view that Graanul will remain under pressure post FY26. We view the

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Fitch has downgraded Graanul’s credit rating to B minus from B plus, citing refinancing risk as the primary concern. Notably, Fitch does not

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This is broadly the deal we were looking for - safe perhaps for at least a token of shareholder contribution. Absent any information from Drax et al., neither

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Please find our updated analysis on Graanul here.

We wrote extensively on Graanul before the numbers, and therefore this update is more focused on the options available to Apollo

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The Q1 numbers are in line with our view. The financials are the secondary focus for Graanul, and all eyes will be on the Company’s plan to secure

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Please find our updated analysis here. 

We have changed our model substantially, which gives us a better understanding of the business. However, the ultimate issue remains the

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Drax released its FY24 numbers but we await the Q&A to glean new information about its agreement with the UK government regarding subsidies for

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Post the investor meetings last week, we have added our thoughts to the potential refinancing debate. 

Ultimately, we don’t believe a refinancing is currently possible given the debate around the name. The uncertainty beyond FY26, with limited contracted sales coupled with public doubts about the “green” credentials of biomass, is juxtaposed with

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The 5pt drop in Graanul bond price reflects the realisation that refinancing isn’t imminent.  The Company presentation yesterday highlighted the

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