Southern Water - easier play with model

please find a slight update to our Southern Water analysis here.

The changes allow for a more

Wolfgang Felix21 January 2020SOUTHERN WATER

Matalan pay price for market share

We are still looking for the gloss on Matalan’s numbers this morning. Q3 results are well below expectations.

Call is at 10.00 am - see details on our calendar.

Wolfgang Felix20 January 2020MATALAN

Codere - bare knuckle

Please find our updated analysis here.

Having done further work on the company’s CapEx history since 2009 as well as the anticipated

Tomás Mannion17 January 2020CODERE

Southern Water - taking a position

Please find our updated analysis here.

We are looking to take a short position in

Tomás Mannion17 January 2020SOUTHERN WATER

Takko - better lucky than goo

Please find our update on Takko here.

Takko is a case of “better lucky than good”. Management

Wolfgang Felix16 January 2020TAKKO

Rallye - Calling all exchangeable

Further to our position in the exchangeable

Tomás Mannion16 January 2020CASINO

Rallye Ghost Meeting

It was Rallye’s bondholder meeting this morning and to be honest, it feels rather quiet.

However, it is unlikely that the

Tomás Mannion16 January 2020CASINO

UK and German Christmas trading references

Primark this morning provide a positive read-across for our positions in Matalan, New Look and Douglas.

The brick&mortar high-street retailer reported of only

Wolfgang Felix16 January 2020MATALAN, NEW LOOK, DOUGLAS, UK RETAIL

Southern Water - initiation

Please find our analysis of Southern Water here.

The company is highly indebted, has had its permitted revenue cut by

Wolfgang Felix15 January 2020SOUTHERN WATER

Boparan appoints turnaround manager as Chairman

Richard Pennycook is a turnaround manager who previously stabilised the Co-op Group after its bank had hit

Wolfgang Felix15 January 2020BOPARAN

Intralot - conclusion of Inteltek

This morning’s news is merely administrative. Intralot are buying back Turkcell’s stake in the course of the wind-up.

We remain

Wolfgang Felix15 January 2020INTRALOT

Boparan - cautious signal

Please find our updated analysis here.

We understand the rationale to secure liquidity - at a time the company has

Wolfgang Felix10 January 2020BOPARAN

Douglas - taking a position again

Please find our updated analysis of Douglas here.

We are taking a long position in

Wolfgang Felix8 January 2020DOUGLAS

Adient - bonds vs. shares vs. macro

Please find a slightly updated analysis of Adient here.

Good liquidity, since bond issue last year, but NCF to remain flat to negative in 2020.

Wolfgang Felix8 January 2020ADIENT

Voestalpine - building a position

Please find our initiation here.

Voestalpine is an Austrian IG Steel producer with a strong balance sheet and ample liquidity.

On a better day than today we are looking to build a

Wolfgang Felix7 January 2020VOESTALPINE

Lowell - same story

Please find our updated analysis here.

Updated for Q3 numbers. No change in conclusion. I.e.: The company should be able to achieve sustainable

Wolfgang Felix7 January 2020LOWELL

UK Apparel Retail Sales

Q4 UK apparel retail appears to have done better than in the first 9 months.

NEXT Plc’s Retail Sales growth of -3.9% in Q4 compares to an average of

Wolfgang Felix7 January 2020NEW LOOK, MATALAN, UK RETAIL

HEMA - key money estimate and 2020 transition

Please find our updated analysis here.

We have contacted a Dutch retail specialist to confirm the touted

Wolfgang Felix7 January 2020HEMA

S+B - Families sell and update

Please find our updated analysis here.

Further to our mail, Martin Haefner now controls just under half of S+B’s shares.

The families had not participated in the

Wolfgang Felix7 January 2020Schmolz + Bickenbach

UK Water Sector

Following Ofwat’s decision last year to raise standards and lower bills (by £50 / household/year) from

Wolfgang Felix6 January 2020UK, IDEAS