SARRIA - Credit Opportunities

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Takko, Tui, e-Dreams

The Germany lockdown is coming. Cabinet ministers have today agreed on a law to allow the Federal Government to intervene in areas where Covid-19 infections exceed 100 per every 10,000 inhabitants over a 7 day period (Incidence Rate). Please see the link to the map. This is the case

Wolfgang Felix13 April 2021TUI, E-DREAMS, TAKKO

OHL – Debt restructuring agreement approved

Please refer to our unchanged analysis here.

Following approval from shareholders on Friday and ahead of approval by the High Court scheduled for Wednesday, our thesis remains that

Aengus McMahon12 April 2021OHL

Introduction - Aengus

Please join us in welcoming Aengus McMahon to the team. Aengus joined us over the Easter break and

Wolfgang Felix12 April 2021GENERAL

Tullow - Will they kick the barrel down the line?

We have updated our model slightly here.

See below for a summary of changes.

We had been surprised that the RBL lenders agreed to extend the facilities without entering into negotiations with bondholders

Tomás Mannion9 April 2021TULLOW

Takko, Tui, eDreams - and the postponed MPK

While we are building an all-new, simpler model of Takko, we continue to monitor the situation in Berlin.

The pandemic is highlighting the limits of Germany’s consensus-based federal system -

Wolfgang Felix9 April 2021TAKKO, TUI, E-DREAMS

Stena - Outlook and positioning

Please find our unchanged analysis here.

We have been procrastinating on this trade a little bit, primarily, because it does not really aim at a specific event. The aim of the trade instead is to generate

Wolfgang Felix8 April 2021STENA

Rekeep - where to now?

Please refer to our unchanged analysis here.

The announcement at the weekend of Rekeep acquiring a 60% stake in a €10m annual revenue business has prompted us to re-examine our long position in the bonds. The acquisition, which the price is not disclosed, is

Tomás Mannion7 April 2021REKEEP

TAP - Air France, the EC and Positioning

Please refer to our unchanged analysis here.

TAP’s proposed restructuring plan differs from Air France-KLM’s in that the new debt is a) bigger than last summer’s injection, b) bigger in relative terms than the

Wolfgang Felix6 April 2021TAP

Casino - Further thoughts on deleveraging

Although the Company raised €300m more than previously guided/expected, we are a little surprised that the Company didn’t opt to raise more in the unsecured and longer-dated August 2027 bond. We expected the Company to have a

Tomás Mannion31 March 2021CASINO

Steinhoff - early conversations

Please find our unchanged analysis here.

Following the debacle of this morning’s Deliveroo Listing, the LSE is apparently keen to point to some future listings that more accurately reflect

Wolfgang Felix31 March 2021STEINHOFF

Codere - further advisory fees, restructuring fees and new money fees likely to occur - but fundamentals??

We have updated our model here.

We’ve been negative on the name since 2019 but due to

Tomás Mannion30 March 2021CODERE

Casino - updated pricing and management discussion on CNova and GreenYellow asset sales

Please find our unchanged Casino analysis here and for CNova here.

Pricing: Casino bankers have indicated to the market a tighter spread (4-4.25% from 4.5-4.75%) with reduced OID discount, for the revised Term Loan B but has kept

Tomás Mannion30 March 2021CASINO

Tullow Oil - Negotiations with Convertible bondholders continue - oil price levels provides some comfort

Tomás Mannion30 March 2021TULLOW

Pandemic Progress

We are growing increasingly cautious about retail’s spring/summer business and travel and tourism this year. In particular seasonal retailers - think apparel - could face a

Wolfgang Felix29 March 2021TAKKO, TAP, MATALAN

WFS – Cargo, WC and positioning

Please find our updated analysis on WFS here.

We are witnessing a strong recovery in the cargo sector with December 2020 already showing positive yoy trends, and with yoy growth strengthening even

Juliano Torii26 March 2021WFS

Takko - What if?

Germany just decided to extend the lockdown to April 18th. Moreover, measures are likely to tighten again in many areas of Germany. “Incidentally”, the opening of shops was tied to the

Wolfgang Felix22 March 2021TAKKO

Casino - impact of extending the maturities

Please see our unchanged analysis here.
Our initial takeaways on today’s announcement:

1. The extension to maturities is sensible, pushing the

Tomás Mannion22 March 2021CASINO

Naviera Armas - Finally!

Please find our unchanged analysis of Naviera Armas here.

We continue to hold our 5% of NAV position in the bonds from January but had admittedly begun to wonder about the deal, given

Wolfgang Felix19 March 2021NAVIERA

Casino - Further assets sales.

Please refer to our unchanged analysis here.

There has been increased press speculation recently in relation to Casino monetising its listed and unlisted assets to further deleverage Casino France entity. This is not a surprise as we continue to

Tomás Mannion18 March 2021CASINO

Tullow Oil - Suriname is less than 1% of sum of the Parts, focus remains on producing assets

Tomás Mannion18 March 2021TULLOW