Please refer to our Europcar analysis here.

The call was uneventful and unsurprisingly the company is trading well below our expectations at the beginning of the year, given

Wolfgang Felix7 May 2021EUROPCAR

Pro-Gest - What a difference a plant makes - Positioning

Please refer to our unchanged analysis here.

Pro-Gest was one of our favourite trades last year as it was one of the rare fundamental stories unrelated to the pandemic. Now thaT

Wolfgang Felix7 May 2021PROGEST

Tullow - Of $s and Wishing Wells - Positioning

Please find our Tullow model here.
Although the pricing of the new Senior Secured bond is wider than we expected, the $1.8bn deal removes

Tomás Mannion7 May 2021TULLOW

Intralot - Staying the course

Please refer to our unchanged analysis of Intralot here.

If the thin market prices for the 24s are anything to go by these days, it is worth noting that to the 21s the agreement per the LUA relative to a pari passu treatment should

Wolfgang Felix5 May 2021INTRALOT

Stena - afloat in liquidity

Please find our significantly updated model here.

Even though recovery in Offshore Drilling is coming on more slowly than we had estimated, overall operations are in line with our projections. Very positive, however, is that Stena is

Wolfgang Felix4 May 2021STENA

Tullow - Roadshow continues on jumbo deal

Please refer to our unchanged analysis here.

Give we are significantly long the entire capital structure except for the 21s, we were pleased to see the announcement yesterday morning.

Tomás Mannion30 April 2021TULLOW

Teva - Operations and Opioid

Please refer to our unchanged analysis here.
Operationally there are limited concerns, but any change in approach from

Tomás Mannion29 April 2021TEVA

Greensill / GFG - the overview

Please find our preliminary analysis of Greensill / GFG here.

Back in March, we’ve spent some time spreading out GCUK and certain parts of GFG. However,

Wolfgang Felix28 April 2021GREENSILL

KME - Volumes drive WC

Please refer to our unchanged analysis here.

The financials released this morning reveal a significant decline in activity over Q420 - even if factoring in the

Aengus McMahon27 April 2021KME

Codere - Debt/Equity vs. Growth

Please find our updated analysis of the Proposed Codere Restructuring here.

Holders of the Senior Secured Notes will receive in exchange for their notes 95% of the equity, partial reinstatement of 25c, new

Tomás Mannion26 April 2021CODERE

TAP - Slow Progress

TAP’s results call was not particularly revealing, except for the comment that management hope the EC might sanction its restructuring plan by end of May, which almost certainly means June at the earliest.

Slow Progress:

Wolfgang Felix26 April 2021TAP

Steinhoff - Pepco stay in Warsaw

Please find our unchanged analysis here.

The 15% stake Steinhoff are selling seems meaningful enough to drive the future valuation of the remaining PepCo stake, and therefore

Wolfgang Felix26 April 2021STEINHOFF

TAP - more expenses but less payments

Please find our thus far unchanged analysis here.

Naturally, this morning's preliminary Q4 figures do not provide us with further information on the restructuring - currently in the hands of the European Commission anyway. However

Wolfgang Felix22 April 2021TAP

KME - Exposed, positioning

Please find our reworked, analysis on KME here.

With the copper price surging, our analysis of company liquidity is focused on trying to understand the moving parts in KME’sworking capital. In our view

Aengus McMahon21 April 2021KME

TUI - Destination undecided

Please find our all-new, if preliminary analysis, on TUI here.

In our first take, we are in particular focusing on the monthly and quarterly working capital movements and their impact on liquidity. The aim is to

Tomás Mannion20 April 2021TUI

Iceland, Steinhoff, Matalan, Takko, Intu - Retail therapy for a released population

A couple of press pieces caught our attention over the weekend and this morning. UK retail - in the eye of the storm - is seeing increasing deal flow and the promise of pent-up demand.
Savings:

The FT carried a story about the $5.4tr of savings accumulated globally during the pandemic. According to

Wolfgang Felix19 April 2021ICELAND, STEINHOFF, MATALAN, TAKKO, INTU

Takko - that third lockdown

Please find our all-new WC/LC/Liquidity focussed model of Takko here.

As in other recent names we have abandoned the WC Days calculations in favour of a more fundamental approach.

Wolfgang Felix16 April 2021TAKKO

Codere - reality of over-leverage and closures leads to further cash need

Please find our unchanged analysis here.

Time is ticking on the 30-day grace period for the non-payment of the interest on Codere’s Super Senior Notes. Initial press speculation focused on

Tomás Mannion16 April 2021CODERE

Adient - tidying up the debt structure.

Please see our unchanged analysis of Adient here.

The Adient trade has played out very well for us, but aside from a

Aengus McMahon15 April 2021ADIENT

Almaviva - just waiting for the refinancing

Please find our updated model here.

We had expected this bond to be refinanced in Q1 2021. Obviously, this has not happened, but we remain confident that the Company will refinance in the next 6 weeks either

Tomás Mannion13 April 2021ALMAVIVA