Orpea - comment

Orpea announced the conclusion and approval of conciliation protocol with its banking Group. This enables the drawdown of an additional €250m facility. However, in return for its approval, the Banks have effectively taken security over any proceeds from

Read More
Tomás MannionORPEA
Adler - comment

Vonovia CFO Grosse commented to the German newspaper Börsenzeitung that Vonovia would make no capital contributions and would even consider selling its current stake in the equity of Adler (24% of shares). While he reiterated

Read More
Wolfgang FelixADLER
Casino/Green Yellow - comment

With the deadline for preliminary bids for GreenYellow set for mid-June, press speculation is rife over the number and type of bidders that is emerging for GreenYellow. Initially, yesterday morning a negative news story was released from BFM TV stating that industry players are

Read More
Aston Martin - Situation Evolving

Please find our amended analysis here.

Two issues define how we are modelling the future of Aston Martin: a) Recent comments by Aston Martin on an electric power unit and the relationship with AMG warrant another look at the technology transfer agreement between the two. b) Aston Martin is launching three new GT/Sport models in 2023, these are new rather than mid-life facelifts, which brings execution risk. We are

Read More
INTUS SGS - comment

INTUS SGS reported its monthly figures for April, which continue to show improving footfall at the centres, with 87% on average across all four centres compared with 2019. More importantly, tenant sales were 89% of April 2019 levels, up from 84% recorded in March. Obviously, inflation is

Read More
Amigo - comment

Amigo announced a couple of board appointments that are signposting its move from looking backwards to looking forward to implementing its new business plan. Amigo has

Read More
Aengus McMahonAMIGO
TAP - comment

Speculation about Lufthansa taking a strategic stake in TAP are not ending. This is of course very much in line with our view of the situation, but has only yesterday been

Read More
Wolfgang FelixTAP
Adler - Extent of x-g'teed, x-collateralised debt

Please find our unchanged analysis here.

When the subject of x-guarantees initially moved into focus, we went back through all publications since the merger to try and identify which loans could be guaranteed by ARE and ADO for instance, potentially leading to a double-dip and to alterations in recovery at one or the other end. Since some of you have been asking and the company did not comment further on questions in this direction, we have refreshed that work and to our surprise, find that we interpret some things differently today.

Read More
Wolfgang FelixADLER
Adler - comment

By recent standards, the company had a rather uneventful call today. No news were really expected and none were given. The unwind of the Partners Immobilien transaction had previously been signalled, so

Read More
Wolfgang FelixADLER
TAP - comment

TAP’s quarterly report for the first three months of the year showed the continued strengthening of the carrier. The March data is somewhat difficult to interpret as the company’s pre-pandemic quarterly disclosure has

Read More
Wolfgang FelixTAP
Upfield - margarine margin

Please find our first analysis of Upfield here.

In the current geopolitical and inflationary environment, it is easy to understand the cost pressures that Upfield are facing. Vegetable oils prices are at record high following the invasion of Ukraine. But the

Read More
Steinhoff - comment

Pepkor have published their quarterly results to March. The results however have been recently overshadowed by a flood in Durban in early May that heavily damaged a distribution centre. As such the quarterlies, which date back to

Read More
Vallourec - fair wind behind

Please find our updated analysis here.

Although Vallourec’s Q1 results comes with a large asterisk attached it does not change the fundamental story behind the Company. Vallourec has came through a large financial restructuring, and with the recent changes in management further

Read More
Vallourec - comment

SVP, one of the main creditors during the restructuring of Vallourec last year, is placing c.50% of their shares via Goldman Sachs and Barclays. This will reduce their holdings from 12.3% to c. 6%. Given the share performance this year,

Read More