Q1 numbers were slightly disappointing but broadly irrelevant in the credit analysis of Jaguar LandRover. The chip shortages, Covid-related lockdowns and impact of inflation are
Read MoreT’is done. Intralot have successfully executed their 38% rights issue, which gives Standard General approx. 20% in the business. The company remains in control of
Read MoreRecruited only two years ago, Chairman Steve Johnson has stepped down and has been replaced by John Hargreaves himself. We can only imagine that he found his role
Read MoreWith strong cash balances CMA acquired 100% of GEFCO, an automotive logistics Company, in April. CMA CGM has received European Union competition authority’s approval and
Read MorePlease find our unchanged analysis here.
Under normal circumstances an equity raise is credit positive all else being equal. The Aston Martin (AML) rights issue has been rumoured in the press recently but does not tally with management comment on the Q1 call in May. This reiterates the concerns we voiced at the time regarding AMLs available liquidity, which is why this is not a normal circumstance equity raise. So while fresh cash from equity holders is certainly very welcome, we explore the timing of the announcement, and its fundamental implications for the business and almost come to a conclusion on value and in particular the bonds.
Read MoreWhilst a lot of focus will be on the 1H22 performance of the Ocado Retail joint Venture we see positives in the overall group. Our thesis is
Read MoreAlthough the headlines surrounding Tesla focus on their Bitcoin sale and covid related shutdowns and supply issues, it should be noted that Tesla has managed to ramp up their
Read MoreAll,
Please find our first analysis of Orpea here.
The headlines at the beginning of the year that surrounded Orpea were linked to possible maltreatment of residents of their nursing homes. This has brought unwanted attention to the Group but shouldn’t distract from the perilous state Orpea found itself in relation to its liquidity with near-term debt and committed capital expenditure exhausting its liquidity. Orpea have recently concluded a Conciliation Process which has ensured the viability of the Company over the coming years. Although the liquidity problem is solved by the new facilities, several other issues still remain with the Company. We explore these issues and the attractiveness or otherwise of Orpea's unsecured bond debt in the current yield environment.
Read MoreThe decision of Ocado Retail to announce that its Chief Executive was stepping down a couple of days before its 22H1 numbers is damning. The timing of this announcement strongly points to
Read MoreWe will have a full note update on Iceland post their conference call this afternoon (2 pm). We give ourselves a pat on the back with EBITDA and debt levels in line with our
Read MoreAs we are headed into the airport chaos to meet some of you in the US, the below graph caught our attention this morning. The first graph below is very high-level, but it tells clear enough a story - so far. Down with the elevator and up with the stairs, we are - two years later
Read MorePlease find our initiation of Ocado Group Plc here.
The first half of 2022 is not likely to have been very kind to Ocado's UK business as costs have hurt gross margins. More pertinently, Ocado is looking to reposition itself from being a grocer to being a tech-based logistics partner for grocers globally. This transformation will not be cheap or easy. As a first mover, Ocado has the benefit of having the best-developed mousetrap, but it isn't the only game in town and staying ahead of the competition will be a challenge. The cash on hand leaves equity taking the strain for now. The legacy retail business is having a challenging time as consumers returning to work and inflation are hitting the top and bottom lines. So when driving cashflows for the two businesses separately, how far does the sum of Ocado’s parts cover the bonds and how should we think about valuing each part? Are these bonds attractive here?
Read MoreHeadlines this morning show European new car sales lowest since 1996 but this should not come as a surprise. The manufacturers had repeatedly highlighted supply chain issues in H1 due to the Ukraine war coupled with ongoing chip shortages. This
Read MorePepco reported good sales growth, in total, as well as in constant currency and LfL, even at Poundland in the UK where net store growth has been impacted by a closure program that has approx. another
Read MoreTullow released its July trading statement (H1 numbers will be released in mid-September) and the only surprise was an accompanying conference call. The release itself had very
Read MoreAs we noted with Casino purchased and cancelled Quantrim bonds in June, we were a little surprised they didn’t purchase more as there was c.€110m in the
Read MorePlease find our unchanged analysis here.
Of the tailwinds management cited for 2022, one related to 6-7 weeks of lock-down in Q122, relative to which the chain should outperform in FY23 (to February 23), even as the online store had compensated for some of the lost sales last year. From there we are netting off and putting into perspective Matalan’s Ost recent results to try and arrive at an underlying base EBITDA for FY 2023. So looking past the restructuring/extension efforts, how does the normalisation of the fundamentals stack up so far and when taking everything into account, how deep is this valley and how steep is the other side?
Read MoreFollowing our note last week, we want to point out that BNP Paribas Real Estate Germany did in fact also released a review of the
Read MoreWith the approval of the Scheme of Arrangement in May the publication of the Amigo FYE March 22 results was of limited importance. The prime focus is
Read MoreGetting a sense of deja vu? JLR reported their Q1 sales numbers and the commentary is the same. Subdued volumes due to chip shortages and covid lockdowns in China. Q1 retail volumes were flat versus Q4 22 (Jan-Mar ’22 period) with wholesale
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