Maxeda - Not a DIY job

Please find our new analysis of Maxeda here.

We previously missed the trade on Maxeda when they traded off sharply in the early days of the pandemic, only to rebound sensationally as people flocked to

Wolfgang Felix16 April 2024MAXEDA

CGG – Cranking into gear.

Please find our slightly updated analysis here.

CGG operationally continues to improve, and we expect FCF/Cash interest at 1.4x in 2024. National Oil Companies have already increased expenditure, and the

Aengus McMahon15 April 2024CGG

Ardagh - comment

Ardagh Group shareholders are taking a gamble and using the shareholding value in Ardagh Metal Packaging (AMPBEV) as collateral for a loan from Apollo at the intermediate holdco outside either

Aengus McMahon15 April 2024ARDAGH

Accentro - comment

Friday’s announcement of a €50m - €60m devaluation in properties is likely to be on the rental portfolio in eastern Germany. We have been sceptical about the valuation and why

Aengus McMahon15 April 2024ACCENTRO

Atalian – looking at the road

Please find our updated analysis here.

Atalian has pushed out its maturity issues to June 2028. Leverage will come down slowly and will be 6.5x at the end of 2027. The new bonds are trading a

Aengus McMahon12 April 2024ATALIAN

Atos - Now it is Creditors turn.

Please find our unchanged analysis here.

Our initial thoughts on the Atos presentation yesterday morning have been that operationally, projections are very ambitious and difficult to justify. Therefore, the level of

Tomás Mannion11 April 2024ATOS

AroundTown/GCP - comment

AroundTown announced the successful results of their exchange/tender offer for four of their Perpetual Notes and two of

Tomás Mannion11 April 2024AROUNDTOWN

Steinhoff - comment

We are exiting our 3% of NAV SEAG A2s and B2.2s today at 38c/€ and 29c/€ respectively. Pepco are still reporting negative LfLs (-3% through March), but

Wolfgang Felix11 April 2024STEINHOFF

Stonegate - comment

Papers are ablaze with derision that Stonegate have admitted their difficulty in refinancing their debt stack. All that happened yesterday is that the company had to

Wolfgang Felix11 April 2024STONEGATE

Morrisons – Tide watching.

Please find our updated analysis here.

Morrisons are prioritising market share over profits. As a result of £75m of synergies being used to reduce prices / passed on to the consumer, our Q1 EBITDA was a significant miss (£70m). We have reviewed our model to rectify this. Reducing the

Aengus McMahon10 April 2024MORRISONS

ASDA - comment

ASDA was already looking to appoint a new CEO to replace Mohsin Issa once Project America was complete, and this latest news might push the timing up a bit. Zuber Issa has

Aengus McMahon9 April 2024ASDA

Thames Water - comment

Hot on the heels of Kemble defaulting last week, the various corporate entities have hired advisors (Ernst & Young for the Kemble lenders and Rothschild for

Saahil Dey9 April 2024THAMES WATER

Atos - comment

Our initial thoughts on the Atos presentation this morning are that operational projections are very ambitious and difficult to justify. Therefore, the level of

Tomás Mannion9 April 2024ATOS

Elior - comment

The new shares issued by Elior represent <0.3% of the equity. Although it will be a relief to the company that it can

Aengus McMahon9 April 2024ELIOR

Atos - comment

Walter Butler’s firm has joined forces with shareholder Onepoint in a “consortium” with the aim to “Make Atos Great Again”. Onepoint and Butler appear to be

Tomás Mannion8 April 2024ATOS

CGG - comment

The upgrade of CGG to B- recognises that 2024/2025 will likely benefit from improving performance operationally and the end of some

Aengus McMahon8 April 2024CGG

Ardagh - comment

The SSNs being downgraded to B- by S&P shouldn’t impact the pricing of the bonds much. The appointment of advisors by the company and creditors last

Aengus McMahon8 April 2024ARDAGH

Stonegate - Time is not on our side.

Please find our updated analysis of Stonegate here.

The name is nearing its refinancing - the market is asking for it. Admittedly we’ve missed the trade into refinancing on this name, but we actually still feel that

Wolfgang Felix5 April 2024STONEGATE

Upfield - Smoothly sailing to a refinancing.

Please see our updated model on Upfield post the Q4 2023 results here.

Q4 2023 results were broadly in line with our expectations and projections. More importantly, though, the company has been tracking if no

Saahil Dey5 April 2024UPFIELD

Thames Water - the leak is getting bigger

Please find our updated analysis on Thames Water here, which now includes a more detailed legal section.

The new development that emerged last week was the existing shareholder’s reluctance to inject the first £500 million of new equity by the end of March 2024 due to the “uninvestible” nature of the

Saahil Dey5 April 2024THAMES WATER