- for speed listening, go to the settings wheel on the bottom right of the video and choose playback speed -
after a few seconds, the video quality improves.

Live Investment Discussion Recording 30 Oct 24

Intro, Cap and Legal Structure -6 Feb 24

Company and Industry - 6 Feb 24

Scenarios - 6 Feb 24

Investment Discussion - 6 Feb 24
Very impressive. Price rises bite faster than expected, raising H126 organic revenue (before Tunnel recognition) by 35% YoY, while
The consent request from the 10th of November has now been approved, leaving a mere €300m more to draw, which should focus
Thames Water Super Sr. creditors are asked to consent to another £321m draw under its facility - presumably the
Originally due for today, Thames Water has agreed to defer its appeal to the CMA regarding Ofwat’s determined pricing and
No standing by. Ahead of the referral to the CMA on Oct. 22nd, the creditor group has revamped its proposal to incorporate the fines that the
A commitment not to sell Thames Water before 2030, or the success of its turnaround carries a signal, even if cynically one could argue it
We thought this would happen over the summer, but only now have Thames Water issued their ultimatum to the regulator. The current burden of
We understand that the creditor group, now calling itself London & Valley Water, has resubmitted its amended plan as per indications
Progress at last. Following the guiding words of Rachel Reeves and the company reiterating that the only credible bid in town - currently - is that of
While we find nothing peculiar about the intensity of the negotiation between the Treasury, creditors and regulators, we concede that we had
The Utility has drawn its second tranche of the £1.5bn super sr. funding, which on the original math should see it through Q126. The company has worded the
Environment Secretary Steve Reed has signed the appointment of FTI Consulting to advise the government on contingency plans for Thames Water, if negotiations fail
Ofwat has agreed to postpone the referral of the price review decision to the CMA until October 22nd. According to the regulator, the three
We previously wrote that the company and creditors are the closely alligned in the negotiations. They are united by a common command of
Parties are still positioning themselves. The treasury insists that the utility pay its fines and fails to provide assurances beyond
The creditors have filed an alternative, minimalist plan that requires no price rises, but also no fines and less CapEx for the coming five years. Not having
We are wondering. We’ve shown the other day what the narrow path to making money looks like for TW and its investors and it’s clear that
When we wrote that KKR would walk out, we meant that tactically. TW’s statement this morning reads awfully final, but then
Please find our all new analysis of Thames Water here.
Will it be worth it? The New Money certainly will, but the next round will involve three- or more likely four-way discussions and no party appears to
Thames Water disclosed a near 99% consent rate on its second request yesterday and that it would prepare for the
That the appeals would be thrown out was all but certain (see previous notes). But not being lawyers, we find ourselves asking what
That KKR’s terms are acceptable to the Class A is somewhat beyond doubt, since there would be no point in going through the motions if they
Today, we will be hearing challenges to the A-Plan. We expect none of those to really stick. Nonetheless, Thames Water have been duly making
As per the FT this morning, we are now counting four equity bids for Thames Water: KKR, CK Infrastructure (Hutchinson), Covalis (B-Holder and fronting Suez / Kraken) and
And Plan A is sanctioned! Thames Water should, therefore, have funding until May 2026. This means the immediate pressure is somewhat off the situation for now, but as per yesterday’s comment, we are awaiting
This week, we should receive Judge Leech’s ruling on the A-Plan (tomorrow) and witness the hearing of the B-Plan on Wednesday. Depending on how that B-Plan hearing goes, we could see the
We would like to see the list of conditions attached to the equity bids that have come in. After Castle Water’s 4bn rescue plan, the Covalis / Suez/ Kraken bid this