Flora H1 results have left the bonds unchanged as the story remains in limbo. Operationally, the numbers were broadly positive, with
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While the new Prime Minister is still getting his feet under the table, Thames Water creditors can only inject another £1bn to give the
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Mobico Idea Pitch video is now live. You can find it on the Sarria website landing page and on the dedicated Mobico page.
Read MoreGood for the bonds. Perhaps we were too rash in concluding that the €100m equity would have to be commercially viable. Only in July, Estonia's parliament dismissed a €14m offer from Latvia for a 10% stake. But Lithuania's Nausėda just left the
Read MoreWith a background from the University of Chicago and A&M, Donald Fetherstone carries my personal sympathy. But bringing in an
Read MoreIncremental news this morning as the Saeima (Latvian parliament) approves the financial stabilisation bill for Air Baltic, and at th
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Good for the bonds. The company outperformed our forecast in two key areas: revenues and M&A outflow. The former is also set to
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Please find our updated analysis of Branicks here.
Loved it when it was higher, but not keen 15 points lower. That does not sound very steady, but to be fair to ourselves: back then it was a fundamental bet on asset value; now it is a technical bet on posture in a second restructuring. The agreed split of the SSNs creates a subordinate PIK instrument that is very much calibrated on a timely turnaround and would not be able to defend itself if x-holders changed their minds. Meanwhile, the balance sheet looks fully levered through the New SSNs, and resembles deals agreed in other REITS that only ever aimed for a tax- and liability-efficient solvent liquidation. So never mind the NAV, we are not as enthusiastic as we were with the old structure.
Read MoreWe are not short these bonds because of the rich coupon that would burn a hole in our pocket. But unless the company can guide to strong occupancy over the summer, we are inclined to
Read MoreStep 1 is done. The first SchVG vote cleared with the required 75% qualified majority; the quorum was met with significantly more than
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We are shorting the Perps for 4% of NAV at 64p/£. Management had prepared us for a low figure, and £24m upfront, plus £5.5m of deferred consideration, will do
Read MoreCeasefire at Antolin. A SteerCo that was willing to let winding-up petitions run, litigate the ICA in the English High Court and press ahead with
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The weak Q226 report was not entirely unexpected after earlier reportings this year. But we will have to adjust our model downwards, as Leasing and
Read MoreWe said months ago that we wouldn't touch these bonds north of 20c/€, and we feel no need to rush in now until we know where the
Read MoreSo we got it wrong, and the PIKs did sacrifice their CVR conditions in the end. The 37/63 split on the concentration uplift upon
Read MoreSo the trouble we are having this morning with the restructuring plan is the EV. Our plan foresaw projections very similar to the company's through '27, while
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As some of you know, we are working on the City’s most powerful proprietary AI system to extend our work and make our own content more readily accessible. Importantly, “Rafael" learns and helps us integrate data, colour and news into our house view, allowing us to interpret events consistently and maintain a coherent investment approach. Rafael runs entirely inside our own environment on Sarria’s own research, and nothing leaves the house. Let us know your thoughts on the unedited example below:
Read MoreMarginally good for the bonds this morning. Vivion has announced the acquisition of the St. Martins Lane hotel in the context of a new
Read More2:0 for the PIKs over the weekend. HSE is visibly struggling with the block, now conceding the demand to amend the intercreditor agreement and
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Please find our updated analysis on Aston Martin here.
The recent refinancing has removed Aston Martin's immediate liquidity risk, but it has also fundamentally changed the credit story. The Company now has sufficient liquidity to execute its product plan over the next 18–24 months, yet our model still indicates a further funding requirement before the 2029 bond maturities. More importantly, the NewCo financing has exposed weaker creditor protections than we had previously assumed, leaving bondholders facing two key questions: can Aston Martin generate sufficient cash to grow into its capital structure, and if not, how will the next round of funding be raised?