Branicks’ results are significantly lighter than modelled. The difference is mostly due to further asset sales since the last results. We are
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Stage 1.5 is underway at Branicks, with a deadline by Friday to sign up to the fresh cash. To recap, Step 1 bought time (done on 18 August). It saw the
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Please find our updated analysis of Branicks here.
Loved it when it was higher, but not keen 15 points lower. That does not sound very steady, but to be fair to ourselves: back then it was a fundamental bet on asset value; now it is a technical bet on posture in a second restructuring. The agreed split of the SSNs creates a subordinate PIK instrument that is very much calibrated on a timely turnaround and would not be able to defend itself if x-holders changed their minds. Meanwhile, the balance sheet looks fully levered through the New SSNs, and resembles deals agreed in other REITS that only ever aimed for a tax- and liability-efficient solvent liquidation. So never mind the NAV, we are not as enthusiastic as we were with the old structure.
Read MoreStep 1 is done. The first SchVG vote cleared with the required 75% qualified majority; the quorum was met with significantly more than
Read MoreSuccess, almost. Branicks are busy today: Three things need to go right today: 100% SSD/NSV accession by close of business, Schultheis onto the
Read MoreNo signal. As negotiations are ongoing, Branicks has informed it has delayed its publication of the audited 2025 report to the
Read MoreThe company reported the extension of its standstill with the promissory notes to July 27th, as negotiations continue. The A&E will have to
Read MoreThe bonds will be lower on a potential snag in putting together a restructuring agreement. However, the lenders are as incentivised as
Read MoreThe appointment of Sodali (reported on Debtwire) is positive for the bonds. Management needs a comprehensive solution and
Read MoreThe possibility of a partial debt-equity swap by Branicks (as reported in Debtwire) doesn’t change our fair value estimate but will
Read MoreThe cancellation of the results announcement will weigh on the bonds, but doesn’t alter the fair value calculations. The central thesis remains that a
Read MoreAn agreement with the EUR87m Promissory note holders was the only logical choice, but the SUNs could rise by a few points in relief. Our core thesis has
Read MoreThe Promissory Noteholders are clearly playing hardball, but would be significantly impaired if they triggered an uncontrolled liquidation of
Read MoreGetting the Domination Agreement approved paves the way for the Amend and Extend operation for the 2026 SUNs. The full-year results will
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The Amend and Extend operation for the Sep 2026 SUNs will start immediately after the Branicks/VIB control and profit agreement is
Read MoreThe key dates for the control and profit agreement are the AGMs of VIB (12 February) and Branicks (13 February), but
Read MoreWe had already highlighted that Branicks would need a very strong Q4, with €250m of sales needed to reach €500m for the year. Branicks delivered a
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The company has reiterated its FY guidance of €500m - €600m of asset sales from the commercial portfolio. This would require
Read MoreSecuring a control and profit agreement with VIB would make an A&E of the Branicks, Sep 2026 SUNs, an easier sell to creditors. Consolidated LTV would
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