The appointment of Sodali (reported on Debtwire) is positive for the bonds. Management needs a comprehensive solution and
Read MoreThe possibility of a partial debt-equity swap by Branicks (as reported in Debtwire) doesn’t change our fair value estimate but will
Read MoreThe cancellation of the results announcement will weigh on the bonds, but doesn’t alter the fair value calculations. The central thesis remains that a
Read MoreAn agreement with the EUR87m Promissory note holders was the only logical choice, but the SUNs could rise by a few points in relief. Our core thesis has
Read MoreThe Promissory Noteholders are clearly playing hardball, but would be significantly impaired if they triggered an uncontrolled liquidation of
Read MoreGetting the Domination Agreement approved paves the way for the Amend and Extend operation for the 2026 SUNs. The full-year results will
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The Amend and Extend operation for the Sep 2026 SUNs will start immediately after the Branicks/VIB control and profit agreement is
Read MoreThe key dates for the control and profit agreement are the AGMs of VIB (12 February) and Branicks (13 February), but
Read MoreWe had already highlighted that Branicks would need a very strong Q4, with €250m of sales needed to reach €500m for the year. Branicks delivered a
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The company has reiterated its FY guidance of €500m - €600m of asset sales from the commercial portfolio. This would require
Read MoreSecuring a control and profit agreement with VIB would make an A&E of the Branicks, Sep 2026 SUNs, an easier sell to creditors. Consolidated LTV would
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The Q2 numbers were broadly in line with our forecast. Regarding disposals, full-year guidance from the Commercial portfolio was maintained at
Read MoreThe AGM approved the issuance of €480m of convertible bonds; there are no plans yet to issue these bonds, but it is conceivable that part
Read MoreBranicks announced, via press release, the full repayment of a €68 million promissory note. Including the
Read MoreThe asset sale will generate about EUR45m in gross proceeds and should generate EUR26m in sales proceeds. We are pleased to
Read MorePlease note that the Branicks email sent on 10th July was incorrectly labelled as a model update. The analysis remains unchanged.
Apologies for any confusion caused.
Read MoreNeutral overall for creditors, the VIB loan is repaid, and the security is released. The institutional business will see its value grow when the
Read MoreThe repayment of the remaining €111m promissory notes will have consumed most of €123m of on-balance-sheet cash at
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