Nordex - A closer look at order volumes and their effect

Please find our update on Nordex here.

The company’s new family of D-4000 turbines has proven to be immensely successful, allowing the company entry into the US and other markets and promising improved margins for this year and next. Order books are overflowing.

However,

Wolfgang Felix6 April 2020NORDEX

New Look - now

Expectations on New Look:

- The company informed suppliers it will cancel all SS orders and will delaying payment for any supplies in transit or already accepted until further notice.

Wolfgang Felix6 April 2020NEW LOOK

Karstadt Kaufhof setting the precedents in Germany

arstadt Kaufhof are setting the precedents in Germany:

- Not a name we cover for lack of bonds, but interesting as a precedent under German

Wolfgang Felix6 April 2020GENERAL, TAKKO, DOUGLAS

Douglas - Liquidity, Structure and Perspective

Please refer to our unchanged analysis of Douglas here.

- Like Karstadt Kaufhof, Douglas have announced stretched payment schedules for suppliers and are paying 65% of salaries on “Kurzarbeit” terms.

- Liquidity was good

Wolfgang Felix6 April 2020DOUGLAS

Hema - Of Corona, Nuisance and Value

Recent press articles have not been well managed. What they mean for the SSNs and SUNs.

- Ramphastos have not so elegantly chosen to

Wolfgang Felix6 April 2020HEMA

Vallourec Extraordinary EGM today at 11am (UK time)

Press reports this morning leads with the news that Vallourec are to reduce workforce in the US by a third (900 employees) but the main news today will be

Tomás Mannion6 April 2020VALLOUREC

AA - movement in the equity - now worth < £100m

So how could the AA be affected? Below is a discussion of the main threats and their likely impact.

1) Current management statement: not impacted “materially” by the outbreak of Covid-19

Wolfgang Felix3 April 2020AA

e-Dreams

Please refer to our analysis of e-Dreams here.

The announcement for September confirms our CF modelling. However, as a levered bet on finding near-term a vaccine against Covid19, eDreams is becoming

Wolfgang Felix31 March 2020E-DREAMS

AA release trading update in lieu of FY20 results

All,

In summary, a stable set of numbers - in line with model here.

Historicals:

- Revenue in line, £995m versus our model of £999m with

Tomás Mannion31 March 2020AA

Rallye with belt and suspenders

While we are updating our Casino model, the Rallye agreement with Fimalac is good news for bondholders.

Rallye had previously

Wolfgang Felix30 March 2020CASINO, RALLYE

Boparan - When the glass goes from 1/4 full to 1/2 empty

Please find our updated analysis of Boparan here.

Overall, its 1:0 to management. Despite having been exceptionally light on detail at the time, management have delivered the

Wolfgang Felix26 March 2020BOPARAN

Intrum - Of Muddy Waters, Melting Icebergs and Clear Views

Please refer to our unchanged analysis here.

The shorts are out again on Intrum. After Muddy Waters disclosed a short position in the name, other

Wolfgang Felix26 March 2020INTRUM

Iceland: Updated model - adding to our position

Please find our stress tested model and analysis here.

We are increasing our position from

Tomás Mannion25 March 2020ICELAND

What a Rent Moratorium would mean

Clearly that would be a significant shift of wealth from landlords to retailers and of market/government focus vice versa. Perhaps it is time to position for that in the very short term (today).

Boris Johnsn’s order to close shops has come just in time for retailers. British Q2

Wolfgang Felix24 March 2020NEW LOOK, MATALAN, PIZZA EXPRESS, ICELAND

Voestalpine - finally, although for all the wrong reasons

Tonight Voestalpine published a press release announcing wide-ranging closures of capacity in the face of the Corona pandemic. We still have

Wolfgang Felix23 March 2020VOESTALPINE

Adient stress tested

Please find our stress tested analysis on Adient here.

The company today announced that its CFO has fully drawn the US line of

Wolfgang Felix23 March 2020ADIENT