Please find our updated analysis on Takko here.

Tracing exactly where all the money went - or suddenly came from - has complicated business. Much easier then and perhaps more to the point is the question: How

Wolfgang Felix9 July 2021TAKKO

Steinhoff - Quantifying the damage from the SA ruling

What does the ruling mean for the various loans, in particular the SFHG A1s? On Friday the Western Cape High Court ruled that the SIHPL CPU underpinning the SFHG A1s is void and the company will likely take through the end of this week to give us an update.

The judgement:

Wolfgang Felix7 July 2021STEINHOFF

Aston Martin - Idea Recall

Please find an updated version of our analysis of Aston Martin here.

Aengus McMahon2 July 2021ASTON MARTIN

Credit Committee Candour

We are very excited about this!

We have begun recording our credit committee meetings when discussing a new name. The videos of our real-time discussion of a name should help us convey much more of the knowledge and thought process that we build up at Sarria.

Wolfgang Felix1 July 2021GENERAL

Aston Martin Lagonda - Positioning

We are initiating on Aston Martin. Please find our analysis here, and NEW a video recording of our Credit Committee discussion.

Having survived its liquidity challenges in 2019 and

Aengus McMahon1 July 2021

Takko - hedging by half a lockdown

Please refer to our unchanged analysis here.

Volume assumptions have been spot on, but apparently, there was less aggressive discounting required to achieve it. Stock, therefore,

Wolfgang Felix30 June 2021TAKKO

Modulaire Group – Bond wrap

Please find our unchanged analysis here.

After months of speculation and a review the fate of the Modulaire Group has now been decided with TDR selling it to Brookfield for US$5bn. This represents

Aengus McMahon28 June 2021ALGECO

Intralot - Implications for the 24s

Please refer to our unchanged analysis here.

As previously mentioned, the core 2021 holders always had the option of upsizing their bond to pass the necessary 90% threshold required to

Wolfgang Felix28 June 2021INTRALOT

OHL – Delivering the goods.

Please refer to our unchanged analysis here.

Given the previous announcement from OHL, the sale of the War Office stake was expected, but it still represents further

Aengus McMahon28 June 2021OHL

Douglas - Cosmetic Complexity

Please find our all-new analysis here.

Douglas has been a fantastic trade for us into the refinancing. So it is hard to try to chase the same story now (refinancing behind us, but

Wolfgang Felix25 June 2021DOUGLAS

INTU SGS Duration versus IRR

Please find our updated analysis here.

Despite CAPEX assumptions released by SGS management in the recent update to market, the thesis of the investment remains the same - stabilising the

Tomás Mannion25 June 2021INTU

Steinhoff - Stay on the leader!

Please refer to our almost unchanged analysis here.

Ahead of tomorrow’s H1 update, Pepco’s Q2 results were somewhat behind our expectations, beginning with a slightly slower

Wolfgang Felix24 June 2021STEINHOFF

Boparan - About that Like for Like Pro-Forma Adjusted Run-Rate EBITDA

Please refer to our shelved analysis here.

When we exited Boparan last year, we pointed to rising feed prices likely eating up much of Boparan’s “Like for Like Pro-Forma Adjusted Run-Rate EBITDA” as well as to

Wolfgang Felix23 June 2021BOPARAN

Europcar - Better late than never

Please find our unchanged analysis of Europcar here.

The upside of VW re-integrating the Rental company has been making a lot of sense to us and we were surprised the OEM did not come forward to buy the business on the cheap in 2020. Over a year after we

Wolfgang Felix23 June 2021EUROPCAR

Codere - So what have we achieved?

Please find our unchanged analysis here.

The announcement this morning from Codere begs the question - what is it achieving? Put simply, Codere have engineered

Tomás Mannion22 June 2021CODERE

KME – Rolling up the carpet.

Please find our unchanged analysis here.

Conclusion:

KME’s method of acquiring a rolled copper products business co-located at its Brescia plant demonstrates on the one hand its constrained

Aengus McMahon21 June 2021KME

KCA Deutag - rising oil price lift all rigs?

Please find our updated analysis here.

Amazing what a difference 6 months makes. Listening to the last conference call on KCA Deutag, with talks of consolidation, funding acquisitions and

Tomás Mannion18 June 2021KCA Deutag

Carlson Travel Inc (CWT) – Short vs Medium Term

Please refer to our unchanged analysis here.

Relative to our model, the latest US business travel data and comments lend themselves to only a minor improvement of our forecast, extending

Aengus McMahon18 June 2021CWT

Steinhoff: On Tekkie and Hamilton

Please find our unchanged analysis here.

While disputes with Mr. Tekkie and class actions managed by Hamilton are making headlines, we remain confident that the

Wolfgang Felix17 June 2021STEINHOFF

Tullow - AGM, Reflection of past year and update to future

Please find our unchanged analysis here.

As a consequence of current times, Tullow’s AGM will be held today virtually. The Company released the AGM statement this morning outlining the progress of the Company over the last year. As we have previously

Tomás Mannion16 June 2021TULLOW