Adler - Interpretations, next steps and events

Please find our unchanged analysis here.

The formalisation of Bafin’s investigation is perhaps not the most shocking news. We have been discussing implications for a while and it’s been a feature in our positioning decisions, but it’s worth reasoning through the structure of BAFIN's involvement to make sure we aren’t missing anything major. Meanwhile, Consus are delisting their shares just in time for the 9-month deadline from year-end.

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Wolfgang FelixADLER
KME - comment

We noted on the Q122 conference call that KME management expects to announce in Q3 how it is going to refinance the outstanding €110m SSNs (maturing in February 23). We are

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Aengus McMahonKME
Tullow - comment

In conversation last week with clients the issue of the legality of a proposed dividend for the new Tullow/Capricorn entity was discussed. For clarity, if leverage is below 1.5x, which is likely if the merger completes, there are limited

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Tomás MannionTULLOW
Takko - Recap Model - Positioning

In light of the current state of the market, the methuselahmic sponsor of 10 supportive years, cost pressures all round, disposable income concerns, Takko are again worth sharpening our pencils for. To be sure, Takko have performed admirably throughout the pandemic, even when considering the fresh cash injection last year. But the debt pile it has been carrying so lightly in years gone by is now becoming very very heavy. We have been toying with a recap model and have extended our forecast to take more of an owners’ view of the name.

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Wolfgang FelixTAKKO
Iceland - comment

Tesco released its Q1 numbers this morning, and the CEO is quoted saying “we are seeing some early indications of changing customer behaviour as a result of the inflationary environment. Customers are facing unprecedented increases in the

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Tomás MannionICELAND
Casino - comment

A couple of announcements were released from Casino this morning with Casino extending their partnership with Gorillas to include the Frichti platform. More importantly, Casino also announced the simplification of its corporate structure by regrouping all its

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Tomás MannionCASINO
Casino - comment

Yesterday saw renewed press speculation about the GreenYellow sales process with Ardian, the latest investment fund, rumoured to have submitted a preliminary bid. This confirms earlier speculation that it is

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Tomás MannionCASINO
Accentro: Questioning the driver

Please find our updated analysis here.

Accentro has sought to shift its strategy, ostensibly to reflect changes in German housing legislation. It has moved from being a nicely dull refurbisher and seller of apartments mainly in Berlin, to large-scale reconstruction of stressed rental assets in eastern German cities. Yet we struggle to shed the idea that Accentro may only have been a passive player in its acquisitions and that its size and shape today may not be the result of ordinary in-house corporate strategy. While bondholders are primarily concerned with asset value - we have made only minor adjustments to our previous valuations - implications from the aforementioned concern - if true - would be complicating matters.

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Tullow - Merger opportunities - Positioning

Please find our unchanged analysis here.

The announcement of a proposed Tullow/Capricorn merger earlier this month provided Tullow debt investors with some relief in the current market malaise. There is no doubt there will be instant deleveraging of the Tullow balance sheet on the completion of the deal expected in Q4. However, recent speculation has raised the possibility of the deal not completing, or at least not on the current terms.

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Tomás MannionTULLOW