Atalian - comment

Company management is under pressure to engage with investors on bond refinancing. Atalian has a timing dilemma. The company expects YE leverage to fall to 5.4x (6.4x in our model). However, the leverage drop depends on a

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Punch - How LTV limits CF

All,

Please find our updated analysis on Punch Taverns here.

We remain bystanders, preferring to watch the very slow-motion game instead of taking part. Ahead of results on Friday, we have updated our analysis of the Fortress owned group. Q123, having shown encouraging sales trends, was the first to reflect the new energy contract. With the group performing broadly in line with our projections, Fortress’ three-year task is becoming clearer and more pressing as the group looks unlikely to grow into its capital structure by passing on inflation alone.

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TAP - one last hurrah

Please find our updated analysis here.

The restructuring has been a success, both financially and operationally. The 24s have tightened into the high 90s and our thesis has run its course. Still, for those interested in holding short term paper with a little upside and possibly a half-decent yield, these bonds still trade very wide compared to the debt of the government that guarantees it and that has just committed to injecting enough cash to take those bonds out if need be.

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Wolfgang FelixTAP