Selecta - comment

Wolfgang was a bit grumpy yesterday. Selecta did not live up to our admittedly lofty expectations. The timing of Easter and a further reduction of 5k private

Wolfgang Felix3 May 2024SELECTA

Heimstaden - Changing Tact - Positioning

Please find our updated analysis here.

Our previous emails have highlighted the age-old problem of mismatch of assets and liabilities and the dire consequences for equity holders. An old story, but one been

Tomás Mannion2 May 2024HEIMSTADEN

Intrum - Now or Never - Positioning

Please find our updated analysis of Intrum here.

These days, the real action at Intrum doesn’t so much involve its assets and what the company is doing, as it involves its creditors of course. As such the

Wolfgang Felix1 May 2024INTRUM

SBB - comment

The impact on SBB’s accounts is a positive €100m. The adjustment is non

Aengus McMahon1 May 2024SBB

Ocado - comment

Tim Steiner won his bonus row with shareholders. A stock price of >£26 could trigger the £15m bonus. It’s a stretch goal, given the award price

Aengus McMahon1 May 2024OCADO

Cerba - Testing our Patience - Positioning

Please find our updated model and positioning on Cerba, here.

After listening to the Q4 2024 earnings call, we have the following observations: The trajectory of the Q4 2023 results was a continuation of the Q3 2023 results which were

Saahil Dey30 April 2024CERBA

Atos - comment

The break-up of Atos still remains an option despite management’s aim of achieving a restructuring of Atos as a whole. Apart from the French state’s approach for a

Tomás Mannion30 April 2024ATOS

Lowell - comment

Have we had an epiphany, or are we going mad? For the first time, we’ve been culled from the Q&A - a signal that management are more nervous about the refinancing

Wolfgang Felix30 April 2024LOWELL

Pfleiderer - comment

Based on the FY 2023 numbers, the company reported sales of EUR 939 million (vs. our estimates of EUR 1 billion) and a decline of 19%. However, reported EBITDA for 2023

Saahil Dey30 April 2024PFLEIDERER

Intrum - Selling the Kingmakers - Positioning

Please find our not-yet-updated analysis here.

The 25s have become almost something like kingmakers in the tussle between the short and long end of the curve. As notional holders we of course like that

Wolfgang Felix29 April 2024

Adler - Generosity Now - Positioning

Please find our not-yet-updated analysis here.

For all their fur, Adler bonds are rightly trading at a discount to the rest of the market. But that could change more quickly than we thought. Bondholders are

Wolfgang Felix29 April 2024ADLER

Thames Water - Valuation Framework

Please find our updated model including valuation analysis of Thames Water here.

Kemble is now in default and Thames Water bondholders have started to organise in anticipation of either a market-led restructuring of the whole

Saahil Dey29 April 2024THAMES WATER

Atos - comment

The headlines are dominated by a non-binding letter of intent from the French state to acquire 100% of a subset of BDS business for c. €700-1,000m subject to

Tomás Mannion29 April 2024ATOS

OHLA - comment

The appointment of PJT BY OHLA’s bondholders is the needed bucket of cold water for the board. We have spent years being told Mañana when it came to

Aengus McMahon29 April 2024OHLA

Oriflame - Two Years

Please find our updated analysis of Oriflame here.

It’s finally happening. Membership is beginning to turn around and even a little faster than we imagined. But that’s the good news - all of it. The turnaround is effectively too

Wolfgang Felix26 April 2024ORIFLAME

AMS Osram - comment

We had expected bonds to trade off a little as we anticipated the weaker guidance but clarification on exit costs from the microLED project coupled with

Tomás Mannion26 April 2024OSRAM

Clariane - comment

Clariane released their Q1 revenue numbers last night, in line with their guidance. They do not provide any profitability numbers but can reconfirm their FY24 guidance of

Tomás Mannion26 April 2024CLARIANE

Atos - comment

Atos released its Q1 numbers but the most important aspects were not number-related. End result of announcement is a more severe debt forgiveness is

Tomás Mannion25 April 2024ATOS

Upfield - comment

Reports in the press on a proposed sale of Upfield at US$ 10 billion to an Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund (ADQ) which were cancelled were beyond

Saahil Dey25 April 2024UPFIELD

Intrum/Lowell - comment

Iquera hired advisors yesterday - the bonds tanked some 30 points. We don’t know the company all that well yet, but it's been engaged in ABS transactions in

Wolfgang Felix25 April 2024INTRUM, LOWELL, DEBT COLLECTORS