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Intro Capital and Legal Structure - 7 Oct 24

Summary and Description - 7 Oct 24

Investment Discussion - 7 Oct 24

Investment Discussion - 7 Oct 24
The downgrade from Moody’s is a reaction to CONSEN not dealing with the $227m May 2026 SUN maturity yet. The Agency point out that
Management expects the impact of curtailments in Q3 (in T&T) will be reversed in Q4. Outside of the T&T Methanol business, results were at
Interesting colour, but nothing new here, Proman will not be repaying its loans from CONSEN anytime soon (as we expected). The $360m loan and $280m guarantee have
Proman is happy that CONSEN can export fertiliser to the US tariff-free. For the avoidance of doubt, this returns the
Last week, the US dropped the 15% tariff on fertiliser products from Trinidad and Tobago (T&T), which will protect the profitability of its
The downgrade from S&P reflects the same concerns that Moody’s showed. CEL favours supporting its parent's (Proman's) growth plans over
The cancellation of possible gas deals between Venezuela and Trinidad & Tobago poses no short-term risk to supplies of natural gas to
The tensions between the US and Venezuela are hurting Consolidated Energy (CONSEN) bonds. We think the concerns are overdone. Delays in
Bonds have softened recently, though without any notable new developments. Two minor news items may be affecting sentiment, but neither is
Consolidated Energy's (CONSEN) performance is improving, but methanol demand fell in Q2 due to concerns about the Trump tariff and the forward scheduling of a
The new Idea Pitch videos are now available.
You can find them on the Sarria website landing page as well as on each individual company’s dedicated page.
We have addressed many of the same points in the Moody's release in our recent investment memo. We expect the pricing
The ownership and operation of Natgasoline will be a priority for Consolidated Energy and Methanex, but not immediately. We expect the
The purchase of OCI’s 50% stake in Natgasoline will be completed on 27th June. We expect no change in ownership before 2026 bu
Please find our updated analysis here.
Despite an unscheduled two-month outage at Natgasoline in Q4, the insurance settlement was swift, and Natgasoline was able to refinance its bank debt in
We estimate that the CONSOL stake in Natgasoline is worth around $1.1 billion. Additionally, CONSOL would receive compensation if its contract to
As tariffs continue to influence market dynamics, we've taken a comprehensive look across our coverage to highlight the names most likely to be affected. For full transparency, we've also included those that remain unaffected—it's just as important to understand where the impact isn't being felt.
The idea here is
OCI wants to include its 50% stake in Natgasoline in the disposal of its methanol assets to Methanex. OCI has just received a ruling in its favour in the
The Fitch downgrade from BB- to B+ reflects the risks we highlighted in our investment memorandum. Consolidated Energy (CONSOL) operates in
Please find our slightly updated analysis here.
The 24Q3 results from Consolidated Energy (CEF) continue to improve as disrupted quarters in 2023 runoff from the LTM numbers. However, the fourth quarter did
OCI selling its methanol business to Methanex means ownership of the Natgasoline JV (operated by CEL) is under discussion. The Natgasoline plant cost around
Acquiring a field from Venezuela is still in the early stages. It would require export waivers from the US (the ultimate destination of much of
Please find our analysis here.
Consolidated Energy has had a terrible run of luck operationally but has well-invested assets and should see significant improvements in cash flow over