Ardagh Group - Endgame

Please find our updated analysis here.

There is still some drama around the PIKs, but whether the process is consensual or vis the courts, the restructuring of the Ardagh debt structure is nearly

Aengus McMahon22 October 2025ARDAGH

Morrisons - comment

Supermarkets are looking for ways to boost gross margins, and a more aggressive approach to lagging outlets

Aengus McMahon22 October 2025MORRISONS

OHLA - comment

OHLA has requested that Moody’s cease covering it, leaving Fitch as the sole agency providing ratings on the company. The direct impact on

Aengus McMahon22 October 2025OHLA, OHL

Consolidated Energy - comment

The tensions between the US and Venezuela are hurting Consolidated Energy (CONSEN) bonds. We think the concerns are overdone. Delays in

Aengus McMahon22 October 2025CONSOLIDATED

Eutelsat - comment

We are due to update our Eutelsat and SES models, but yesterday’s Eutelsat Q126 results were largely on target. Within that, however, we are seeing

Wolfgang Felix22 October 2025EUTELSAT

Worldline - comment

Q3 revenues were on target. Management had a useful slide explaining the structure of the overdraft cash pooling / upstream loan - largely in line with

Wolfgang Felix22 October 2025WORLDLINE

Antolin - comment

The company is playing for time. Following the publication of a Spanish press article in the summer, conversation surrounding Antolin seems to

Wolfgang Felix22 October 2025ANTOLIN

Matalan - comment

LTM EBITDA of £70m is now significantly ahead of our projections of £60m at the start of the year. Once adjusting for the 14th week, Q225 itself

Wolfgang Felix22 October 2025MATALAN

Ardagh - comment

DB/Carronade are holdouts in the Ardagh restructuring with 13% of the PIKs. They have nuisance value as they can prevent Ardagh reaching

Aengus McMahon21 October 2025ARDAGH

Thames Water - comment

Originally due for today, Thames Water has agreed to defer its appeal to the CMA regarding Ofwat’s determined pricing and

Wolfgang Felix21 October 2025THAMES WATER

Aston Martin - comment

The downgrade to CCC+ will restrict some investors; however, the overall impact is small. Management has already highlighted that some

Aengus McMahon21 October 2025ASTON MARTIN

Atos - comment

Atos released very weak revenue figures. However, as the Company does not disclose EBITDA figures, we are unable to verify

Tomás Mannion21 October 2025ATOS

Victoria Plc - comment

The 2028 bondholders have rejected the exchange offer from Victoria Plc, choosing not to accept the distressed offer to uptier the balance. Admittedly, we had

Tomás Mannion21 October 2025VICTORIA

Flora - Plant-Based Cash Cow - Model Update

Please find our updated analysis on Flora here.

We have had an excellent history with Flora, having invested in the previous Flora “sub” bonds in August and December 2022 at

Tomás Mannion20 October 2025FLORA, UPFIELD

Morrisons - comment

Having store staff walking about the store filling baskets is the least efficient solution, particularly when it is their second job. In-store picking

Aengus McMahon20 October 2025MORRISONS

Mobico - comment

Mobico released a note on its website following the MS conference that management attended. In it, the company restates its

Wolfgang Felix20 October 2025MOBICO

Adler Pelzer - comment

It’s Friday, and the market is not so friendly. Having sent out our IM on APG only yesterday, in which we decided to wait for

Wolfgang Felix17 October 2025ADLER PELZER

OHLA - comment

The decision to split the Canalejas assets paves the way for OHLA to dispose of its share. We estimate the on-site 4 Seasons Hotel to be worth

Aengus McMahon17 October 2025OHLA

Flora - comment

Flora has extended its revolving credit facility until October 2030. This is subject to the Senior Term Facilities also being extended to

Tomás Mannion17 October 2025FLORA

Lowell - comment

It’s going faster than we thought. As per our previous note, hiring Teneo was never going to be about a routine business forecast. We understand the

Wolfgang Felix17 October 2025LOWELL