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Ocado - comment

The FT article on the Ocado/Kroger CFC closures fleshes out a few interesting points. We still expect CFCs to be the major part of the

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Aengus McMahon24 November 2025OCADO
CPI Property Group - Comment

The bank debt is moving with the assets (we estimate bank debt LTV of c25%). The deal involved just under €900m of assets moving from

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Aengus McMahon24 November 2025CPI
Thames Water - comment

The consent request from the 10th of November has now been approved, leaving a mere €300m more to draw, which should focus

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Wolfgang Felix24 November 2025THAMES WATER
AMS Osram - Not all about business - Model Update
AMS Osram - Not all about business - Model Update

Please find our updated model on AMS Osram following the Q3 results here.

With AMS Osram shares down c.20%, the bonds have moved lower in sympathy. In our view, the equity reaction is excessive, and bondholders should

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Tomás Mannion21 November 2025AMS, OSRAM
Consolidated Energy - comment

Interesting colour, but nothing new here, Proman will not be repaying its loans from CONSEN anytime soon (as we expected). The $360m loan and $280m guarantee have

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Aengus McMahon21 November 2025CONSOLIDATED
Ocado - comment

The CFC model is not dead, but is evolving. ODO Systems is a competitor to Ocado, and we agree with the sentiment that

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Aengus McMahon21 November 2025OCADO
Tullow Oil - comment

Tullow’s endgame may be approaching, or perhaps not. As we stated previously, a delisting, debt for equity and/or Amend and Extend are the only

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Tomás Mannion21 November 2025TULLOW
Klöckner Pentaplast - No Smoke, No Fire - Model Update
Klöckner Pentaplast - No Smoke, No Fire - Model Update

Please find our updated analysis of Klöckner Pentaplast here.

Where there is no smoke, there is no fire, or perhaps where there is no queue, there is no value. In Klöckners case, that means that we can’t

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Wolfgang Felix20 November 2025KLOCKNER, KP
ASDA - comment

The impact of the deal will be to layer the SSNs and SUNs with another £568m of debt. The use of the cash will be to support the turnaround of

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Aengus McMahon20 November 2025ASDA
Vivion - comment

As part of €750m in debt issuance, Vivion hopes to issue its first £250m hybrid, a positive step for a company where there is

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Aengus McMahon20 November 2025VIVION
Accentro - comment

The rationale behind Michael Hintze’s fund taking 15.8% of Accentro isn’t immediately clear. The purchase is via Deltroit Directional Opportunities Master fund,

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Aengus McMahon19 November 2025ACCENTRO
Altice SFR France - comment

The French police, supported by Eurojust, have conducted raids on several homes and businesses in France as part of an investigation into

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Tomás Mannion19 November 2025ALTICE SFR, ALTICE
Ocado - comment

Kroger’s closure of three sites was at the worst end of our expectations. The closure fees from Kroger for the CFC closures imply a valuation of

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Aengus McMahon19 November 2025OCADO
Viridien - comment

Viridien is splitting the CEO/Chair role when Sophie Zurquiyah steps down in June 2026, which is evidence of good corporate governance. Keeping

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Aengus McMahon19 November 2025VIRIDIEN
Consolidated Energy - comment

Proman is happy that CONSEN can export fertiliser to the US tariff-free. For the avoidance of doubt, this returns the

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Aengus McMahon19 November 2025CONSOLIDATED
Cerba - Bought time - Model Update - Positioning
Cerba - Bought time - Model Update - Positioning

Please find our updated analysis on Cerba post Q3 numbers here.

The equity sponsors are in the process of injecting an additional €100m of liquidity into the Company, pari passu with the

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Tomás Mannion18 November 2025CERBA
Transcom - comment

Altor has provided a larger equity injection than we anticipated, with the €50m contribution funding the 15% cash element under the

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Tomás Mannion18 November 2025TRANSCOM
AMS Osram - comment
AMS Osram - comment

Creditors received no update on the two key issues that will drive credit spreads in the medium term during AMS Osram’s Q3

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Tomás Mannion18 November 2025AMS, OSRAM
Consolidated Energy - comment

Last week, the US dropped the 15% tariff on fertiliser products from Trinidad and Tobago (T&T), which will protect the profitability of its

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Aengus McMahon18 November 2025CONSOLIDATED
Ardagh Group - comment

Redeeming the $260m Preference shares (held by Ardagh Group) makes sense for AMP, as these shares were originally put in

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Aengus McMahon18 November 2025ARDAGH
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