Everything is better. Strong performance from BeNeLux DIY this morning. Figures are altogether very close to model, but at
Read More
Please find our updated Rekeep analysis here.
Note: Beta testers can check Rekeep on the Beta portal here.
Rekeep’s 1H26 results highlighted continued pressure on EBITDA, with higher labour and third-party costs weighing on margins despite stable revenue and strong contract wins. While leverage has increased to 6.2x, the bonds have fallen to 76c, bringing the potential asset disposal into sharper focus. Our analysis suggests the energy business could be sold for c.€275m, with proceeds used to repay debt and potentially redeem the 2029 SSNs at 103c. We therefore see the asset sale as the key near-term catalyst, while the resilient backlog and absence of near-term maturities provide support to the credit.
Read MoreAccentro's bond amendments have now become effective. Since violation of reporting obligations has been waived until Year-End, we are not
Read MoreNot so good news from another early refinancing. SES is taking out the November '27 notes more than a year early with a new
Read More
We expect limited reaction in Tullow’s bonds following the H1 results. Production of 43.7kboepd was ahead of the FY26 guidance range, with
Read MoreOHLA announced that it has now obtained approval from bondholders representing more than 50% in aggregate principal amount
Read More
Please find our updated analysis of Tele Columbus here.
Are investors calculating off the right base? If you calculate your capex required to upgrade normal hotel rooms so that more travellers choose your hotel over others, you'd come up with a small number. A few extra amenities will do. However, it turns out the same is not true for convincing inmates. Once you allow inmates to choose among hotels, they will not choose based on their cell, but compared to other hotels available, and converting the prison into a competitive hotel is a larger relative capex outlay than adding a minibar and wifi.
Sounds trivial, but the generalised economics we hear thrown about that reason on ratios and averages just don't seem to apply to a hostage situation where there is more ground to be made up underneath the sheer numbers. Relative to TC's current shape, we might just need a lot more cash than shorthand economics would usually prescribe.
Iceland announced a £250m 5yr Senior Secured Notes refinancing yesterday, with proceeds used to repay the existing
Read MoreWe doubt this will become relevant to the credit. If you are the only user of MEO satellites, you might as well build
Read More
Selling PizzaExpress at £500m must be a mere valuation exercise. We've been asking for a chicken menu for a long time, but an
Read MoreAttracting a strategic buyer could be very attractive for Stonegate. Heineken's framing of "advanced talks" suggests the deal is
Read More
As in Punch, we might have been a little too bullish on the pub trade this year. Although our topline projections were accurate, margins
Read More
Please find our updated analysis of Punch here.
Too tight for our usual demand profile, Pubs are still better than cash and just as safe - these days anyway. So perhaps considering that we are already long Stonegate, it follows that we are also going long Punch, but we do so for a different reason. Stonegate is a momentum trade. The company still doesn't quite earn what it must, but positive momentum carries it. Punch does earn what it must and is taking advantage of its less liquid peers. This almost certainly means that Fortress will be looking to take bondholders for a ride again, but at this rate of investment in the estate and Punch's relative advantage in this business rates environment mean that we would sell this to our mothers.
Read More
Please find our updated analysis, post-Q3 results, on Morrisons here.
We have not meaningfully changed our operating assumptions for Morrisons and have extended our projections by a further year. However, we have spent significant time assessing the potential for property monetisation to accelerate deleveraging. Recent management commentary has increased our confidence that sale-and-leaseback transactions could become a meaningful source of liquidity, with a c.£500m transaction reducing leverage by around 0.5x in our analysis. This provides an additional catalyst for the Senior Unsecured Bonds alongside the ongoing operational recovery.
Read MoreArdagh’s latest development is negative for the bonds, with a Luxembourg court temporarily blocking Ardagh Holdings from proceeding with
Read MoreBioGroup’s conference call yesterday had no impact on trading levels or the credit story, but did provide some incremental
Read MoreVictoria’s latest transaction update and general meeting notice is modestly positive for the bonds, with both the operational recovery and
Read MoreTravelodge have hired Freshfields as the company goes through its deliberations on the capital market options ahead. We have
Read MoreAs we have repeatedly highlighted, KKR needs to engineer an exit from Flora as it approaches its 10-year ownership mark. The
Read More