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Transcom - comment
Transcom - comment

Headline leverage metrics show an apparent reduction, but this improvement was driven almost entirely by the €50m sponsor equity injection rather than

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Tomás Mannion19 February 2026TRANSCOM
Fedrigoni - Better to be punctual - Model Update - corrected
Fedrigoni - Better to be punctual - Model Update - corrected

Please find our updated analysis on Fedrigoni here.

Considering the renewed sell-off of luxury equities this year, the bonds once again look richer than Fedrigoni’s end clients. While GY26 should largely

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Wolfgang Felix18 February 2026FEDRIGONI
Synthomer - comment

We have heard press reports that the company is working with Rothschild on refinancing its debt (including a possible equity raise). We see this

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Aengus McMahon18 February 2026SYNTHOMER
Virgin Media O2 - comment
Virgin Media O2 - comment

Subscriber numbers were a little above our expectations, but the friction in Revenue and EBITDA continues. There will be at best a modest rise in

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Aengus McMahon18 February 2026VMEDO2
Ineos Group - Cracking Capacity - Initiation
Ineos Group - Cracking Capacity - Initiation

Please find our initiation on the Ineos Group here. 

INEOS Group has sufficient liquidity to operate through December 2027, even if volumes and pricing remain at FY25 lows. However, with yields at 12–14%, constructing a compelling long thesis is

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Tomás Mannion17 February 2026INEOS
Branicks - comment

Getting the Domination Agreement approved paves the way for the Amend and Extend operation for the 2026 SUNs. The full-year results will

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Aengus McMahon16 February 2026BRANICKS
Morrisons - comment

In October 2025, we estimated the value of the full Morrisons Pharmacy business to be £170m. Press reports now suggest only a partial sale of

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Aengus McMahon16 February 2026MORRISONS
The Very Group - comment

Carlyle has equitised £150m of subordinated debt, satisfying the deleveraging condition under the Group’s senior secured notes. As a result, the

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Tomás Mannion16 February 2026THE VERY GROUP
Antolin - Progressing Optionality - Model Update
Antolin - Progressing Optionality - Model Update

Please find our updated analysis on Antolin here.

As it looks unlikely that the bonds can be refinanced in the market by late 2027, Antolin is building a liquidity war chest, which should

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Wolfgang Felix13 February 2026ANTOLIN
HSE 24 - Recovering - Model Update - Positioning
HSE 24 - Recovering - Model Update - Positioning

Please find our updated analysis here

HSE has proven to be a successful investment for us; the early execution of a debt restructuring meant our holding period was much shorter than

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Aengus McMahon13 February 2026HSE24
Punch - comment
Punch - comment

[Delayed] The company reported Q126 revenues on target on Tuesday, but we had probably been too optimistic on the margin for a Q1m, which is typically

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Wolfgang Felix13 February 2026PUNCH
Thames Water - comment

Thus far, Thames Water's cash planning has been accurate; liquidity is running thin into March. The two Accordion Facilities of

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Wolfgang Felix13 February 2026THAMES WATER
Eutelsat - comment
Eutelsat - comment

It’s all faster than expected. Both the growth at One Web and the drop in Video are running ahead of our model to produce EBITDA, only slightly

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Wolfgang Felix13 February 2026EUTELSAT
Birkenstock - comment
Birkenstock - comment

Birkenstock had already released the headline results in January, so the results didn’t contain much by way of surprises. Birkenstock will benefit from

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Aengus McMahon13 February 2026BIRKENSTOCK
Ubisoft - comment
Ubisoft - comment

Unfortunately, we were not allowed to ask questions, but yesterday’s most ominous word was “re-profile”. Management emphasised several

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Wolfgang Felix13 February 2026UBISOFT
Iceland - comment
Iceland - comment
Tomás Mannion12 February 2026ICELAND
Synthomer - comment

We think the equity raise is being pushed on Synthomer by its banks. Synthomer required a receivables loan from its main shareholder to

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Aengus McMahon12 February 2026SYNTHOMER
Ineos/Ineos Quattro - comment

We had intended to publish a morning note on Sir Jim Ratcliffe’s remarks at the Antwerp Summit, where he warned that the

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Tomás Mannion12 February 2026INEOS QUATTRO, INEOS
ASDA/Morrisons/Iceland - comment

Aldi's investment in its stores is a response to investment programs by the rest of the industry. Aldi/Lidl are already cheaper, but run on fewer

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Aengus McMahon11 February 2026ASDA, MORRISONS, ICELAND
Adler Pelzer - comment

We interpret yesterday’s preliminary release in the context of APG’s ongoing refinancing efforts. We were braced for a Q4 disappointment following

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Wolfgang Felix11 February 2026ADLER PELZER
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