ION Platform - Thesis confirmed - Model Update
ION Platform - Thesis confirmed - Model Update

Please find our updated analysis on ION Platform following Q3 results here.

Note: Beta testers can check the update on the portal here.

Our overall impression is more constructive than following Q2. Disclosure has improved materially, with greater clarity on intercompany transfers, stronger engagement from management and the owner, Andrea Pignataro, joining the investor call. Operating performance also continues to improve, with the synergy programme now fully actioned and a growing proportion of savings translating into cash. While the bonds have rallied 5pts since our initial investment in June, we continue to see further upside, supported by year-end deleveraging, the prospect of further debt repurchases and the potential for asset-sale proceeds to reduce leverage. 

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Tomás MannionION PLATFORM
OHLA - Go With The (Cash) Flow - Model Update
OHLA - Go With The (Cash) Flow - Model Update

Please find our updated analysis on OHLA here.

Note: Beta testers can check OHLA on the portal here.

Liquidity and cash flow remain the key issue in the construction industry - OHLA is not an exception to this. Combine this with concerns around access to guarantee lines and expensive SSNs, and you get a recipe that leaves many with their heads scratching - us included. There will be a lot going on in the next 6-9 months, and we will be watching closely.

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Martin HoelzlOHLA
Birkenstock - Not Stepping in - Model Update
Birkenstock - Not Stepping in - Model Update

Please find our updated analysis on Birkenstock here.

Note: Beta testers can check Birkenstock on the portal here.

The fundamental picture has improved since we last wrote on this name. Birkenstock has refinanced its old SUNs with €900m of 4.500% notes due 2033, and Q3 trading was solid, with revenue up 13% and margins above 30% despite US tariffs. The refinancing more than doubled the bonds outstanding, leaving room for further shareholder returns. With the new bonds trading in line with our fair value, we remain on the sidelines.

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Eashan Kapoor
Vivion - Buy UK - Model Update
Vivion - Buy UK - Model Update

Please find our updated analysis on Vivion here. 

Note: Beta testers can check Graanul on the portal here.

The perps are down 15 points in a month, and we are long the short-dated '29s. Does that make us think? Well, we've rebuilt our entire analysis on the name. Have compared property valuations to rental yields, to cash flows, considered the corporate structure and on and on, but to anticipate the conclusion: we are sticking to our position for now. Vivion is a somewhat special case among REITs, and therein lies the opportunity.

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Wolfgang FelixVIVION
Graanul - No Deal to '27 - Model Update
Graanul - No Deal to '27 - Model Update

Please find our updated analysis on Graanul here, following the Company’s latest refinancing attempt.

Note: Beta testers can check Graanul on the portal here.

The fundamental picture has not changed materially since our last update. Graanul has secured further volumes for FY27, but has provided little visibility on pricing. Apollo and management have also tested the market for a full refinancing, but ultimately did not proceed given the coupon required by investors. With the refinancing no longer progressing, we expect all stakeholders to wait for greater clarity on FY27 volumes and, more importantly, pricing. We are therefore less negative on the bonds at current levels, but still do not see sufficient compensation to take a long position.

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Tomás MannionGRAANUL
Asda - Reduction in Adjustments - Model Update
Asda - Reduction in Adjustments - Model Update

Building on our work on Morrisons, it is natural to look at the Asda capital structure. Having not followed the credit closely for some time, it took us a while to reconcile the current leverage and, more importantly, establish what we consider to be the appropriate EBITDA for the business. In essence, this is the key credit question: how much of the high level of exceptional and separation-related costs incurred over recent quarters will unwind, and how much of that unwind will ultimately translate into recurring EBITDA and cash flow.

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Tomás MannionASDA
PizzaExpress - Picking Slim - Model Update - Positioning
PizzaExpress - Picking Slim - Model Update - Positioning

Please find our updated analysis on PizzaExpress here.

Note: Beta testers can check PizzaExpress on the Beta portal here.

One swallow does not a spring make, or so goes the saying. If H126 is that swallow, we might still be early to be betting on the spring. Next year's comps will be tough, and Mr. Burnham is unlikely to lower taxes, NLW, or business rates. But looking across the spectrum, 11% YTW for 66% LTV (no assets here) and marginal interest coverage is not all bad. Profits are slim, and the pizza is slimmer, but pizza requires less Ozempic than burgers or Wagamama. Not quite Chicken, but perhaps a reason to return to an old national favourite.

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Wolfgang FelixPIZZA EXPRESS
Synthomer - The Race Just Started - Model Update
Synthomer - The Race Just Started - Model Update

Please find our updated analysis of Synthomer here.

Note: Beta testers can check Synthomer on the Beta portal here.

With loosened covenants and maturities extended (at the expense of the SUNs), the race towards deleveraging has just started. Cash is king, and Synthomer has sufficient of it for now, but generating cash is a different story. Combine this with tightening covenants over time, and you are left with one question: how? While this seems like an easy question, we don't have an answer to it at the moment. Therefore, we remain sceptical and continue to question whether management's ambitions are achievable anytime soon. 

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Martin HoelzlSYNTHOMER