Thames Water - comment

Rating agency Moody’s has come out with a “glass half full” outlook comment on the UK water sector where they expect the draft determinations from Ofwat (which is expected to

Saahil Dey14 May 2024THAMES WATER

Morrisons - comment

Cost-cutting efforts at Morrisons are seeing some staff pushback. The impact will be limited as the action impacts two of seven hubs

Aengus McMahon14 May 2024MORRISONS

Selecta - Vending a free lunch?

Please find our updated analysis of Selecta here.

The vendor disappointed us with a low uplift in sales prices in Q124 of what looked like a mere 6%, down from double that in Q423 it seems (the company does not

Wolfgang Felix13 May 2024SELECTA

Altice International - comment

S&P downgraded Altice International on Friday to B- with a negative outlook, citing the higher interest burden due to underlying rates, the impact of the

Tomás Mannion13 May 2024ALTICE INTERNATIONAL, ALTICE

Accentro - comment

Accentro has persuaded 42% of bondholders to agree not to enforce the upcoming debt covenant breach. Enforcement would require support from

Aengus McMahon13 May 2024ACCENTRO

Ardagh - comment

The arguments made in Fitch’s downgrade echo our concerns. The capital structure is unsustainable and Ardagh continues to show weak

Aengus McMahon10 May 2024ARDAGH

Ardagh – Paying a handsome price.

Please find our slightly updated analysis here.

Little has changed in our core thesis after the recent results and financing actions at the Ardgah Group. However, the timetable is forming up to action by

Aengus McMahon10 May 2024ARDAGH

Adler - Valuation, Recap Scenario and Investment Considerations

Please find our updated model on Adler here.

ADJ bonds are down today on an S&P downgrade that comes a year late in our opinion. Still, we didn’t have it on our screens and bought 5 points higher on the 29s. We know some

Wolfgang Felix9 May 2024ADLER

Pfleiderer - Light through the clouds - Positioning

Please find our updated model and positioning on Pfleiderer, here.

After listening to the Q4 2023 & Q1 2024 earnings call, we were pleasantly surprised by the strong outlook from the company. We feel

Saahil Dey8 May 2024PFLEIDERER

AMS Osram - Back to Basics - Positioning

Please find our updated analysis here.

We have invested in AMS Osram successfully over the last year and we feel now is the time to re-enter the name. There are a couple of positive event risks in the

Tomás Mannion8 May 2024OSRAM, AMS

AMS Osram - comment

At the Q4 results in February, AMS Osram guided that they were divesting of non-core semi-conductor businesses which generated c. €300-400m of

Tomás Mannion8 May 2024OSRAM

Branicks - Timing

Please find our slightly updated analysis here.

The delayed publication of the FY23 results allowed Branicks to present a better liquidity picture. The structure of Branicks pushes creditors towards consensual restructuring of debts rather than an aggressive court process. The proposed disposal

Aengus McMahon7 May 2024DIC ASSET, BRANICKS

SBB - comment

24Q1 release was operationally in line, but the key 2024 challenge of getting an IPO/part disposal of the Swedish residential business remains outstanding. The shorter end of

Aengus McMahon7 May 2024SBB

Atos - comment

Our initial reaction to the four distinct “offer” letters from financial creditors, Bain Capital, EPEI (Kretinsky)/Attestor, and OnePoint/Butler Industries, is slightly reserved. Summary below

Tomás Mannion7 May 2024ATOS

Atos - comment

Les Echos reported that Bain Capital will submit a bid for parts of Atos, meeting today’s deadline. Bain Capital was previously mentioned in conjunction with a

Tomás Mannion3 May 2024ATOS

Asda - comment

ASDA can afford the additional coupon on the new SSNs; our 2024 forecast FCCR was 2.8x before the new issue and around 2.0x pro forma. The decision to

Aengus McMahon3 May 2024ASDA

Vivion - comment

Vivion is leaning towards either raising debt or selling UK assets to fund the €180m outstanding 2024 notes. We think a debt raise is increasingly likely

Aengus McMahon3 May 2024VIVION

Selecta - comment

Wolfgang was a bit grumpy yesterday. Selecta did not live up to our admittedly lofty expectations. The timing of Easter and a further reduction of 5k private

Wolfgang Felix3 May 2024SELECTA

Heimstaden - Changing Tact - Positioning

Please find our updated analysis here.

Our previous emails have highlighted the age-old problem of mismatch of assets and liabilities and the dire consequences for equity holders. An old story, but one been

Tomás Mannion2 May 2024HEIMSTADEN

Intrum - Now or Never - Positioning

Please find our updated analysis of Intrum here.

These days, the real action at Intrum doesn’t so much involve its assets and what the company is doing, as it involves its creditors of course. As such the

Wolfgang Felix1 May 2024INTRUM